Highlights of the 18th Actuarial Report on the Old Age Security (OAS) Program as at December 31, 2021
Message from the Chief Actuary
The ratio of program expenditures to the GDP is projected to be relatively stable over the projection period.
OAS Program
OAS program - text description
As a result of baby boomers gradually reaching age 65, the number of beneficiaries and expenditures are projected to steadily increase over the next four decades.
Total expenditures, including administrative expenses, are projected to increase from an estimated $77.8 billion in 2023 to $136.6 billion in 2035 and $276.5 billion by 2060.
The ratio of expenditures to the GDP is estimated to be 2.68% in 2023.
Due to the population ageing, the ratio of expenditures to GDP is projected to reach a high of 3.0% by the early 2030s. Afterwards, this ratio is projected to gradually decrease to a level of 2.64% by 2060, mainly due to expected slower growth in inflation compared to growth in the GDP.
Expenditures
Expenditures - text description
Basic Pension
Basic pension annual expenditures are projected to increase from $59.8 billion in 2023 to:
- $105.7 billion in 2035
- $223.8 billion by 2060
Guaranteed Income Supplement (GIS) and Allowance
GIS and Allowance annual expenditures are projected to increase from $17.7 billion in 2023 to:
- $30.2 billion in 2035
- $51.3 billion by 2060
Beneficiaries
Beneficiaries - text description
Basic Pension
The number of beneficiaries of the basic pension is projected to increase at a higher pace from 2023 to 2035, growing from 7.2 million in 2023 to:
- 9.8 million in 2035
- 12.6 million by 2060
Guaranteed Income Supplement (GIS) and Allowance
The number of GIS and Allowance beneficiaries is projected to increase at a higher pace from 2023 to 2035, growing from 2.5 million in 2023 to:
- 3.4 million in 2035
- 3.6 million by 2060
Uncertainty
There is much uncertainty surrounding the projected costs of the OAS program. The expenditures-to-GDP cost ratio of the OAS program is subject to volatility resulting from many demographic and economic factors. The 18th OAS Program Actuarial Report provides information to illustrate the sensitivity of the long-term projected costs of the program to changes in the future demographic and economic outlooks, and to illustrate potential risks due to emerging trends.