Pension Plan for the Public Service of Canada: Population and Mortality Study - Actuarial Study No. 25

List of tables

• Table 1 - Annualized growth rate for male and female from plan years 2011 to 2023
• Table 2 - Proportion of disabled pensionersa to member population for male and female for plan years 2011 and 2023
• Table 3 - Male-to-female ratio for plan years 2011 and 2023
• Table 4 - Average age and percentage of centenarians by population type for plan years 2011 and 2023
• Table 5 - Life expectancy at age 65 for male and female for plan years 2011 and 2023
• Table 6 - Evolution of the number of members and surviving spouses aged 50 and over between plan year 2011 and 2023
• Table 7 - Average longevity improvement factors between plan years 2012 and 2022
• Table 8 - Non-disabled male member mortality rates for plan years 2012 to 2022
• Table 9 - Non-disabled female member mortality rates for plan years 2012 to 2022
• Table 10 - Disabled male member mortality rates for plan years 2012 to 2022
• Table 11 - Disabled female member mortality rates for plan years 2012 to 2022
• Table 12 - Surviving spouse male mortality rates for plan years 2012 to 2022
• Table 13 - Surviving spouse female mortality rates for plan years 2012 to 2022
• Table 14 - 11-year average longevity improvement factors
• Table 15 - Complete period of life table

List of figures

• Figure 1 - Period life expectancy at age 65 for plan year 2023
• Figure 2 - Evolution of the number of non‑disabled population aged 50 and over from plan years 2011 to 2023
• Figure 3 - Average age of non-disabled population aged 50 and over from plan years 2011 to 2023
• Figure 4 - Age distribution of the 50 and over non-disabled male members from plan years 2011 to 2023
• Figure 5 - Age distribution of the 50 and over non-disabled female members from plan years 2011 to 2023
• Figure 6 - Centenarian members as percentage of the non-disabled populations aged 50 and over and their average age from plan years 2011 to 2023
• Figure 7 - Evolution of disabled population aged 50 and over from plan years 2011 to 2023
• Figure 8 - Evolution of surviving spouse population from plan years 2011 to 2023
• Figure 9 - Evolution of percentage of centenarians in surviving spouse population from plan years 2011 to 2023
• Figure 10 - Mortality rates for age group 65 to 69 from plan years 2012 to 2022
• Figure 11 - Mortality rates for age group 70 to 74 from plan years 2012 to 2022
• Figure 12 - Mortality rates for age group 75 to 79 from plan years 2012 to 2022
• Figure 13 - Mortality rates for age group 80 to 84 from plan years 2012 to 2022
• Figure 14 - Mortality rates for age group 85 to 89 from plan years 2012 to 2022
• Figure 15 - Mortality rates for age group 90 to 94 from plan years 2012 to 2022
• Figure 16 - Period life expectancies at age 65 for all three groups from plan years 2012 to 2022
• Figure 17 - Period life expectancies at age 65 in 2021
• Figure 18 - Crude monthly mortality rate for aged 50 and over from plan years 2012 to 2022

1 Executive summary

1.1 Purpose

This study was conducted to support the identification of mortality assumptions for the 20th Actuarial Report on the Pension Plan for the Public Service of Canada (PSPP) as at 31 March 2023.

The increase in life expectancy and the changes in future longevity improvement rates are important risks faced by defined benefit pension plans. This study helps to manage these risks by understanding the evolution of plan experience in order to determine appropriate mortality assumptions.

1.2 Context

This is the Office of the Chief Actuary's (OCA) second mortality experience study of the Pension Plan for the PSPP. It examines population characteristics, trends in mortality rates, longevity improvement factors and period life expectancy of various populations in the PSPP.

The PSPP, which is governed by the Public Service Superannuation Act, is a defined benefit pension plan offered to federal public service employees. The PSPP holds more than $200 billion in actuarial liability and covers more than 700,000 members.

1.3 Scope

This study focuses on historical information for years^{Footnote 1} 2011 to 2023 and includes PSPP members and surviving spouses aged 50 and over, representing more than 400,000 members.

The data are grouped into three distinct populations: non-disabled population, disabled population, and surviving spouse population.

• The non-disabled population is composed of contributors and non-disabled pensioners. Non-disabled pensioners include deferred pensioners.
• The disabled population is composed of disabled pensioners.
• The surviving spouse population is composed of spouses or former spouses of members who are receiving survivor benefits following the deaths of the members. Due to limited information, no distinction is made between non‑disabled or disabled surviving spouses.
• For the purposes of establishing mortality rates, data are deemed credible between ages 50 and 95 for the non‑disabled and disabled member populations. For the surviving spouse population, data are deemed credible between ages 60 and 95 for men and between ages 55 and 95 for women. This study was done on an age-nearest basis.^{Footnote 2}

1.4 Highlights

1.4.1 Population statistics and trends for aged 50 and over

The total population grew at an average annual rate of 1.5% from plan year 2011 to plan year 2023. The annualized growth rate by population and gender is presented below.

The proportion of disabled population declined over the period of study.

The ratio of the number of males to females decreased over the period of study for both the non-disabled and disabled populations while it increased for the surviving spouse population. For the non‑disabled population, the number of males surpassed that of females in plan year 2011, whereas they were equal in 2023.

The average age increased for each population and gender over the period of study and the proportion of members over age 100 significantly increased.

1.4.2 Period life expectancy at age 65

Period life expectancies increased for the non-disabled population while they decreased slightly for the disabled and surviving spouse populations over the period of study.

1.4.3 Longevity improvements

The 11-year average longevity improvement factors from plan years 2012 to 2022 for non‑disabled population were positive for both genders and all age groups between 50 and 95, except for females in the 90 to 95 age group. A positive average longevity improvement factor means that the mortality rates have generally decreased over time.

1.4.4 Salary impact

As salary level increases, period life expectancy increases. Non‑disabled female population is less affected by the level of salary than non‑disabled male population.

2 Definitions

Active members (contributors):

Public servants who are currently contributing to the PSPP

Deferred pensioners:

Former public servants who have terminated employment, for reason other than disability and retirement, but maintained entitlement to pension benefits from the PSPP

Disabled pensioners:

Former public servants who have terminated employment for reason of disability

Non-disabled members:

Public servants who are active, deferred, or retired status

Members:

Public servant who are active, deferred, disabled, or retired status

Period life expectancy:

Calculation of life expectancy assuming mortality rates remain constant into the future

Populations:

Aged 50 and over non-disabled members, disabled members, or surviving spouses

Retired members:

Former public servants who have terminated employment for reason of retirement

Status:

Possible participation status of a person to the PSPP: active, deferred, disabled, retired or surviving spouse

Surviving spouse:

Status of a spouse or former spouse who is receiving survivor benefits following the death of the member, or

Population type that contains spouse or former spouse of a member who is receiving survivor benefits following the death of the member.

3 Considerations

The last Pension Plan for the Public Service of Canada Mortality Study, Actuarial Study No. 14, suggested that socioeconomic factors such as a person's salary level may influence mortality rates. Consequently, starting from the Actuarial Report as at 31 March 2017, the mortality assumptions included in the actuarial reports for the PSPP take into account salary-weighted mortality rates. The results from an analysis in this current study reaffirms that the level of salary influences life expectancy. As shown in Figure 1, life expectancy increases as the level of salary increases.

The salaries of the PSPP non‑disabled population aged 50 to 95 are grouped in three levels:

1. less than or equal to 1.5 times Year's Maximum Pensionable Earnings (YMPE)^{Footnote 3} (46%)
2. more than 1.5 times YMPE and less than or equal to 2.0 times of YMPE (29%)
3. more than 2.0 times of YMPE (25%)

Figure 1 shows that the period life expectancy for the non-disabled female population is less affected by the increase in the salary level beyond two times YMPE than the male population. Although the salary level affects mortality rates, the mortality rates and period life expectancies calculated beyond this section herein this report are not salary-weighted so that they are comparable to other external studies.

Figure 1 - Text version

Figure 1 - Period life expectancy at age 65 for plan year 2023

Salary	Male	Female
(0, 1.5 × YMPE]	19.3	21.8
(1.5 × YMPE, 2.0 × YMPE]	21.2	23.5
> 2.0 × YMPE	22.3	23.6

4 Data

The data we use in this study are seriatim data provided by Public Services and Procurement Canada (PSPC). We use the same data to perform the statutory valuations.

We exclude some records due to:

• Date of death being before the start of the study period
• Missing key data such as birthdate
• Cash outs over the study period
• Inconsistent date of entry in relation to the date of termination over the study period
• Inconsistent benefit entitlement stop date in relation to the date of last payment over the study period

5 Population characteristics

The populations in this study refer to the members and the surviving spouses aged 50 and over only. Table 6 shows the number and the annualized rate of growth of the members and the surviving spouses from plan year 2011 to plan year 2023. Although the number of non‑disabled females was smaller than the number of non‑disabled males by 22% in plan year 2011, the non‑disabled female population grew at a faster rate leading to the number of non‑disabled females exceeding the number of non‑disabled males by 1.7% by plan year 2023.

Figure 2 shows the evolution of the non-disabled population aged 50 and over broken down by year and by status. The growth rate for active populations ranges from −1.9% (PY 2014) to 3.3% (PY 2022) for males and from −2.0% (PY 2014) to 4.1% (PY 2022) for females. The fluctuation in the growth rate reflects different government policies over time. From plan years 2019 to 2023, the average growth rates were 2% for active males and 2.4% for active females. The number of deferred and retired members grew steadily throughout the study period.

Figure 2 - Text version

Figure 2 - Evolution of the number of non‑disabled population aged 50 and over from plan years 2011 to 2023

Plan Year	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
Active Male	52829	52876	53280	52286	51793	51807	51876	52179	52910	53422	54648	56463	57592
Deferred Male	2389	2478	2652	2837	3079	3481	3663	3836	3992	4519	4601	4697	4817
Retired Male	102923	104366	105607	107808	109280	110048	110929	111333	111677	112123	112571	112467	113319
Active Female	57392	58544	59850	58651	58208	58353	58669	59028	59594	60476	61976	64510	66534
Deferred Female	3032	3225	3457	3676	3917	4198	4380	4617	4877	5202	5358	5475	5716
Retired Female	62852	66560	70206	75505	79919	83391	87117	90420	93784	97103	100192	102829	106441

Figure 3 shows the evolution of the average age of the non-disabled population aged 50 and over from plan year 2011 to plan year 2023. The average age of a non-disabled male steadily increased from 66.1 years in plan year 2011 to 67.5 years in plan year 2023 and from 62.8 years to 64.9 years for a non‑disabled female.

Chart 3 - Text version

Figure 3 - Average age of non-disabled population aged 50 and over from plan years 2011 to 2023

Plan Year	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
Average Age Male	66.1	66.2	66.3	66.4	66.6	66.7	66.8	67.0	67.1	67.2	67.3	67.4	67.5
Average Age Female	62.8	62.9	62.9	63.1	63.3	63.5	63.7	64.0	64.2	64.4	64.6	64.8	64.9

Figure 4 and Figure 5 show the evolution of the non-disabled population broken down by age group. In plan year 2011, the age range 50 to 69 made up 65% of the male population and 77% of the female population. In plan year 2023, these proportions dropped to 58% for males and 70% for females as age range 70 to 79 became larger for both genders.

Figure 4 - Text version

Figure 4 - Age distribution of the 50 and over non-disabled male members from plan years 2011 to 2023

Plan year	50-59	60-69	70-79	80-89	>=90
2011	0.330705	0.318659	0.206366	0.122277	0.021993
2012	0.325119	0.322283	0.206875	0.120905	0.024818
2013	0.321056	0.323736	0.209194	0.119123	0.026891
2014	0.3156	0.324825	0.212519	0.118731	0.028325
2015	0.310529	0.325655	0.216854	0.117586	0.029375
2016	0.305874	0.327019	0.22049	0.116998	0.029618
2017	0.299517	0.32512	0.227671	0.118185	0.029507
2018	0.294446	0.318402	0.238676	0.119398	0.029077
2019	0.290991	0.31361	0.246958	0.120145	0.028295
2020	0.287251	0.310271	0.252329	0.121983	0.028166
2021	0.283797	0.307624	0.257543	0.122902	0.028134
2022	0.281823	0.304561	0.260962	0.124405	0.02825
2023	0.281401	0.301904	0.261387	0.127037	0.028271

Figure 5 - Text version

Figure 5 - Age distribution of the 50 and over non-disabled female members from plan years 2011 to 2023

Plan year	50-59	60-69	70-79	80-89	>=90
2011	0.485545	0.280801	0.132402	0.081338	0.019915
2012	0.476478	0.291742	0.131958	0.079117	0.020705
2013	0.466838	0.302937	0.132504	0.075925	0.021796
2014	0.453073	0.314673	0.136057	0.073851	0.022346
2015	0.43961	0.326765	0.138288	0.072372	0.022965
2016	0.425525	0.338011	0.141871	0.071104	0.023489
2017	0.411298	0.345305	0.149375	0.070229	0.023794
2018	0.396047	0.350657	0.160186	0.069996	0.023114
2019	0.383103	0.354131	0.170491	0.069931	0.022344
2020	0.370062	0.35783	0.179573	0.070893	0.021643
2021	0.359681	0.358971	0.188598	0.071481	0.021268
2022	0.351517	0.357176	0.198161	0.072378	0.020768
2023	0.346011	0.353269	0.206843	0.073669	0.020208

Furthermore, the number of centenarians has been increasing between plan years 2011 and 2023. Figure 6 shows that the number of centenarians as the percentage of the non-disabled population aged 50 and over gradually increased from 0.01% in plan year 2011 to 0.09% in plan year 2023 for males and from 0.01% to 0.12% for females. The average age of male centenarians increased from 100.8 years in plan year 2011 to 101.2 in plan year 2023 while the average age of female centenarians dropped slightly from 101.6 years to 101.4 years during the same period.

Figure 6 - Text version

Figure 6 - Centenarian members as percentage of the non-disabled populations aged 50 and over and their average age from plan years 2011 to 2023

	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
Average Age Male Centenarian	100.8	100.8	100.9	100.8	101.0	101.1	101.0	100.9	100.8	100.9	100.9	101.0	101.2
Average Age Female Centenarian	101.6	101.1	101.3	101.4	101.5	101.7	101.5	101.2	101.3	101.4	101.4	101.4	101.4
% Male Centenarian	0.01%	0.01%	0.02%	0.04%	0.04%	0.04%	0.04%	0.05%	0.05%	0.06%	0.08%	0.09%	0.09%
% Female Centenarian	0.01%	0.03%	0.04%	0.07%	0.08%	0.07%	0.07%	0.08%	0.08%	0.07%	0.09%	0.10%	0.12%

This study also includes an analysis of the mortality of disabled and surviving spouse populations. Figure 7 and Figure 8 show the evolutions of these populations over the past decade. Figure 7 shows the number of female disabled pensioners increased steadily while the number of male disabled pensioners declined. From plan years 2011 to 2023, the percentage of disabled male pensioners to total male members aged 50 and over decreased from 3.7% to 2.9%, while the percentage of disabled female members remained stable at around 5%. As the number of disabled female pensioners grew larger over time, the male-to-female ratio for the disabled populations declined from 0.9 in plan year 2011 to 0.6 in plan year 2023, indicating that females are more likely to become disabled than males. The average age for disabled pensioners increased from 67.7 years old in plan year 2011 to 68.4 years in plan year 2023 for males and from 64.7 years old to 65.7 years old for females.

Figure 7 - Text version

Figure 7 - Evolution of disabled population aged 50 and over from plan years 2011 to 2023

	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
Disabled Male	5995	5920	5867	5804	5768	5716	5672	5581	5476	5387	5324	5223	5216
Disabled Female	6486	6781	7081	7377	7664	7964	8254	8458	8670	8809	8969	9107	9305
Average Age Male Disabled	67.7	67.9	68.0	68.0	68.1	68.1	68.1	68.2	68.3	68.4	68.3	68.4	68.4
Average Age Female Disabled	64.7	64.6	64.6	64.6	64.6	64.6	64.7	64.9	65.0	65.2	65.4	65.6	65.7

Figure 8 shows the opposite trend for the surviving spouse population. The number of female surviving spouses declined while the number of male surviving spouses increased. The annualized rate of growth of the male spouse population was 3.9% while the female spouse population shrank at the rate of −1.6%. As the number of male surviving spouses rose, the male-to-female ratio increased from 0.1 in plan year 2011 to 0.2 in plan year 2023.

The average age of the surviving spouses increased from 72.2 years old in plan year 2011 to 74.7 years old in plan year 2023 for males and from 79.4 to 81.1 years old for females, indicating that there are more older surviving spouses in plan year 2023 than in plan year 2011.

Figure 8 - Text version

Figure 8 - Evolution of surviving spouse population from plan years 2011 to 2023

	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
Male surviving spouse	4637	4905	5129	5329	5592	5811	6013	6210	6470	6712	6938	7134	7367
Female surviving spouse	48375	48012	47584	46985	46218	45426	44586	43635	42832	42075	41225	40303	39694
Male Average Age	72.2	72.4	72.8	72.9	73.0	73.2	73.4	73.6	74.0	74.2	74.3	74.5	74.7
Female Average Age	79.4	79.7	80.0	80.2	80.4	80.6	80.7	80.8	80.9	81.0	81.0	81.1	81.1

Similar to the non-disabled populations, the percentage of centenarians in the surviving spouse populations increased over the past 12 years. Figure 9 shows the progression of the increases for both genders from plan years 2011 to 2023. The female centenarian surviving spouse population had sharp growth during this period. The percentage of male centenarian surviving spouses increased from 0.02% in plan year 2011 to 0.34% in plan year 2023. It rose sharply for female surviving spouses, from 0.09% in 2011 to 1.46% in 2023. The proportion of both male and female centenarian surviving spouses increased by approximately the same multiple of 16. The average age of the centenarian surviving spouses increased from 100.0 years old in plan year 2015 to 101.1 years old in plan year 2023 for males and slightly decreased from 101.5 years old to 101.4 years old for females. The average ages of the centenarian surviving spouses are comparable to those of the non-disabled centenarians. Due to small data set prior to plan year 2015, only results from plan year 2015 are presented.

Figure 9 - Text version

Figure 9 - Evolution of percentage of centenarians in surviving spouse population from plan years 2011 to 2023

	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
% Male Centenarians	0.02%	0.02%	0.04%	0.04%	0.02%	0.05%	0.10%	0.11%	0.15%	0.21%	0.26%	0.24%	0.34%
% Female Centenarians	0.09%	0.20%	0.34%	0.47%	0.61%	0.66%	0.72%	0.82%	0.93%	0.96%	1.13%	1.21%	1.46%
Average age male centenarians	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	100.3	100.7	100.6	100.6	100.5	100.7	101.1	101.1
Average age female centenarians	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	101.4	101.5	101.4	101.2	101.4	101.3	101.3	101.4

6 Mortality and life expectancy trends

6.1 Development of mortality rates

The mortality rates were calculated based on the mortality experience over three consecutive plan years to increase the number of exposures and to reduce the variability in the annual data. Therefore, while the period of study spanned from plan years 2011 to 2023, only mortality rates for plan years 2012 to 2022 could be derived. This method was also adopted in the development of the mortality rates for the 20th Actuarial Report on the Pension Plan for the Public Service of Canada as at 31 March 2023.

Mortality rate is defined as the number of deaths during the year divided by the population who was alive at the beginning of the year. The mortality rates for each plan year are estimated using the following four-step process.

6.1.1 Combine three annual data sets to one

Starting in plan year 2012 and ending in plan year 2022, for each plan year and each age, add the number of members who were alive at the beginning of the previous plan year, the current plan year, and the next plan year to arrive at the exposure of the current plan year ($E_{\mathrm{y}}$). That is:
$E_y=e_{y-1}+e_y+e_{y+1}$, where

• $e_{y-1}$ = total number of members who were alive on April 1 of plan year $y-1$

• $e_y$ = total number of members who were alive on April 1 of plan year $y$

• $e_{y+1}$ = total number of members who were alive on April 1 of plan year $y+1$.

For the same time period, for each plan year and each age, add the number of members who died during the previous plan year, the current plan year, and the next plan year to arrive at the total number of deaths of the current plan year (D). That is:
$D_y=d_{y-1}+d_y+d_{y+1}$, where

• $d_{y-1}$ = total number of deaths during plan year $y-1$

• $d_y$ = total number of deaths during plan year $y$

• $d_{y+1}$ = total number of deaths during plan year $y+1$.

6.1.2 Calculate crude mortality rates

For each plan year and each age, the crude mortality rate is calculated by dividing $D_y$ by $E_y$.

6.1.3 Graduate crude mortality rates

The crude mortality rates are then graduated to reflect a compromise between smoothness and fit. A Whittaker-Henderson graduation method is used to produce the graduated rates from age 50 to 95 for all populations, except surviving spouses. Due to limited data, the crude mortality rates for the surviving spouse population are graduated from age 60 to 95 for males and from age 55 to 95 for females. For the male surviving spouse population, the mortality rates from age 50 to 59 were linearly interpolated using the mortality rates of the non-disabled male members at age 50 as a starting point to the first graduated rate based on male surviving spouse population at age 60. Similarly, the mortality rates for female surviving spouses from age 50 to 54 are linearly interpolated using the mortality rates of the non-disabled female members at age 50 as a starting point to the first graduated rate at age 55.

6.1.4 Extend graduated mortality rates to age 115

Due to limited data beyond age 95, the mortality rates from age 96 to 105 are calculated using linear interpolation from mortality rate at age 95 determined as per Section 6.1.3 to age 106. Furthermore, the mortality rates at ages 106 to 114 are fixed at 0.5 and set to 1 at age 115.

6.2 Mortality rate trends

Figure 10 to Figure 15 show the evolutions of the mortality rates from plan years 2012 to 2022 for both genders for all three populations by age group. The complete mortality tables for all ages are provided in Appendix A. It can be seen from figures that the mortality rates for the non‑disabled populations generally gradually decreased from plan years 2012 to 2022 for both genders and all age groups. The disabled male pensioners had stable but highest mortality rates when compared to other populations throughout the period of study. The disabled female pensioners at age groups 65 to 74 had the second-highest mortality rates when compared to other populations. However, as age progresses, the mortality rates of the male surviving spouse rise at a faster rate and the male surviving spouse eventually becomes the population that has the second-highest mortality rates for age groups 80 to 89, except for plan year 2018. The male surviving spouses always had higher mortality rates than those of the non-disabled males up to age group 85 to 89. At age group 90 to 94, the male surviving spouses and non-disabled males had similar mortality rates. In contrast, the female surviving spouses had higher mortality rates than those of the non-disabled females up to age group 80 to 84. Starting at age group 85 to 89, the female surviving spouses and non-disabled females also had similar mortality rates.

Figure 10 - Text version

Figure 10 - Mortality rates for age group 65 to 69 from plan years 2012 to 2022

	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
Healthy Male Mortality Rate	1.1%	1.1%	1.1%	1.1%	1.1%	1.0%	1.1%	1.0%	1.0%	1.0%	0.9%
Healthy Female Mortality Rate	0.8%	0.8%	0.8%	0.8%	0.8%	0.8%	0.8%	0.8%	0.8%	0.8%	0.8%
Disabled Male Mortality Rate	3.0%	2.7%	2.8%	2.9%	3.0%	2.9%	3.0%	3.2%	3.1%	3.0%	3.0%
Disabled Female Mortality Rate	1.8%	1.8%	1.8%	1.8%	1.9%	1.9%	2.1%	2.1%	2.0%	1.9%	1.9%
Male Spouse Mortality Rate	1.8%	1.8%	1.5%	1.3%	1.5%	1.6%	1.5%	1.5%	1.5%	1.7%	1.6%
Female Spouse Mortality Rate	1.0%	1.0%	1.0%	1.1%	1.1%	1.1%	1.0%	1.0%	1.1%	1.1%	1.1%

Figure 11 - Text version

Figure 11 - Mortality rates for age group 70 to 74 from plan years 2012 to 2022

	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
Healthy Male Mortality Rate	1.8%	1.8%	1.8%	1.8%	1.7%	1.7%	1.7%	1.7%	1.7%	1.7%	1.6%
Healthy Female Mortality Rate	1.3%	1.3%	1.3%	1.3%	1.3%	1.3%	1.3%	1.3%	1.2%	1.3%	1.3%
Disabled Male Mortality Rate	4.2%	3.8%	3.7%	4.2%	4.6%	4.5%	4.2%	4.6%	4.5%	4.4%	4.2%
Disabled Female Mortality Rate	2.7%	2.6%	2.7%	2.6%	2.5%	2.7%	3.0%	3.1%	3.1%	2.9%	2.9%
Male Spouse Mortality Rate	2.6%	2.3%	2.2%	2.0%	2.4%	2.5%	2.5%	2.5%	2.6%	2.8%	2.6%
Female Spouse Mortality Rate	1.6%	1.7%	1.8%	1.8%	1.7%	1.7%	1.7%	1.8%	1.8%	1.8%	1.8%

Figure 12 - Text version

Figure 12 - Mortality rates for age group 75 to 79 from plan years 2012 to 2022

	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
Healthy Male Mortality Rate	3.5%	3.3%	3.2%	3.1%	3.1%	3.0%	3.0%	2.9%	2.8%	2.8%	2.9%
Healthy Female Mortality Rate	2.3%	2.3%	2.3%	2.2%	2.2%	2.1%	2.1%	2.1%	2.1%	2.1%	2.1%
Disabled Male Mortality Rate	6.3%	6.0%	5.9%	6.5%	7.0%	7.1%	6.6%	6.8%	6.8%	6.7%	6.3%
Disabled Female Mortality Rate	4.2%	4.1%	4.4%	4.4%	4.0%	4.1%	4.3%	4.8%	4.8%	4.6%	4.2%
Male Spouse Mortality Rate	4.2%	3.9%	4.1%	4.1%	4.5%	4.4%	4.5%	4.5%	4.5%	4.7%	4.4%
Female Spouse Mortality Rate	2.8%	2.9%	3.0%	2.9%	2.8%	2.7%	2.9%	2.9%	2.9%	2.9%	2.8%

Figure 13 - Text version

Figure 13 - Mortality rates for age group 80 to 84 from plan years 2012 to 2022

	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
Healthy Male Mortality Rate	6.3%	6.1%	6.1%	5.8%	5.8%	5.7%	5.6%	5.5%	5.3%	5.4%	5.4%
Healthy Female Mortality Rate	4.3%	4.4%	4.4%	4.3%	4.3%	4.1%	4.0%	4.0%	4.0%	3.9%	3.7%
Disabled Male Mortality Rate	9.8%	9.7%	10.2%	10.3%	10.2%	10.7%	10.2%	9.9%	10.0%	9.9%	9.6%
Disabled Female Mortality Rate	6.4%	6.6%	7.2%	7.3%	6.5%	6.7%	6.5%	7.5%	7.3%	7.2%	6.4%
Male Spouse Mortality Rate	7.5%	7.6%	8.1%	8.0%	7.8%	7.4%	7.2%	7.2%	7.4%	7.9%	7.9%
Female Spouse Mortality Rate	4.9%	4.9%	5.0%	4.8%	4.9%	4.7%	4.9%	4.7%	4.7%	4.6%	4.8%

Figure 14 - Text version

Figure 14 - Mortality rates for age group 85 to 89 from plan years 2012 to 2022

	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
Healthy Male Mortality Rate	11.0%	10.9%	11.0%	10.7%	10.8%	10.7%	10.5%	10.2%	10.1%	10.3%	10.3%
Healthy Female Mortality Rate	7.9%	8.1%	8.2%	8.1%	8.4%	8.4%	8.3%	8.0%	7.7%	7.5%	7.6%
Disabled Male Mortality Rate	15.0%	15.1%	16.1%	15.0%	14.2%	15.1%	15.3%	14.8%	15.0%	14.4%	15.0%
Disabled Female Mortality Rate	9.8%	10.8%	10.8%	11.0%	9.7%	10.4%	10.1%	11.9%	11.6%	11.6%	11.0%
Male Spouse Mortality Rate	12.4%	13.1%	13.7%	13.2%	12.6%	11.8%	11.0%	11.2%	12.0%	12.9%	13.3%
Female Spouse Mortality Rate	8.3%	8.2%	8.4%	8.3%	8.5%	8.4%	8.3%	8.0%	8.1%	8.3%	8.7%

Figure 15 - Text version

Figure 15 - Mortality rates for age group 90 to 94 from plan years 2012 to 2022

	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
Healthy Male Mortality Rate	17.6%	17.9%	18.1%	18.1%	18.5%	18.4%	18.7%	18.1%	17.9%	17.9%	18.0%
Healthy Female Mortality Rate	14.3%	14.3%	13.8%	13.2%	13.5%	14.3%	14.6%	14.4%	13.9%	14.1%	14.9%
Disabled Male Mortality Rate	20.7%	21.1%	20.9%	16.9%	19.0%	20.7%	22.8%	25.0%	23.4%	22.5%	23.7%
Disabled Female Mortality Rate	18.3%	17.1%	14.7%	15.3%	13.8%	15.3%	15.8%	18.5%	18.7%	19.8%	21.8%
Male Spouse Mortality Rate	18.6%	18.6%	19.9%	18.8%	19.4%	18.0%	18.5%	18.1%	19.6%	19.8%	20.3%
Female Spouse Mortality Rate	13.3%	13.6%	14.0%	14.2%	14.1%	14.0%	13.7%	13.9%	14.0%	14.4%	14.7%

In general, declining mortality rates over time implied positive longevity improvements. For example, the mortality rates of non-disabled males and non-disabled females age 65 to 69 have been generally decreasing over the past 12 years, resulting in 11-year average improvement rates for this age group of 1.5% for males and 0.3% for females. Table 7 shows the 11-year average longevity improvement factors^{Footnote 4} by age group for all three populations. The non‑disabled populations have positive longevity improvements for all age groups except for the female age group 90 to 95. Disabled and surviving spouse populations experienced negative longevity improvements for most age groups. Appendix B provides complete 11‑year improvement factors for age 50 to 95 for all three groups.

6.3 Life expectancy trends

As a result of positive longevity improvement over the past 12 years for the non-disabled population, the period life expectancies at age 65 increased from 19.7 years in plan year 2012 to 20.6 years in plan year 2022 for males and from 22.2 years to 22.5 years for females. For the disabled pensioners, the period life expectancy at age 65 slightly decreased from 15.1 years to 15.0 years for males and from 18.3 years to 17.9 years for females. For the surviving spouse population, the period life expectancy at age 65 decreased from 18.1 years to 17.9 years for males and from 21.5 to 21.1 years for females. Figure 16 show the evolutions of period life expectancies at age 65 for both genders for all three groups from plan years 2012 to 2022.

In plan year 2022, a non-disabled member has longer period life expectancy at age 65 than a disabled pensioner by 5.6 years for males and 4.7 years for females. Similarly, a surviving spouse has shorter period life expectancy at age 65 than a non‑disabled member by 2.7 years for males and 1.4 years for females. Non‑disabled populations have longer period life expectancy at age 65 than the surviving spouse populations could partially be explained by a common phenomenon known as the "widowhood effect"^{Footnote 5} and a possible correlation between the mortality of the members and their spouses. Such correlation comes from the fact that the surviving spouses are potentially exposed to the same lifestyles and environmental factors that cause early deaths in the members, thereby leading the surviving spouse populations to have lower life expectancy.

Figure 16 - Text version

Figure 16 - Period life expectancies at age 65 for all three groups from plan years 2012 to 2022

	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
Healthy male	19.7	19.9	19.9	20.1	20.1	20.3	20.3	20.4	20.6	20.6	20.6
Healthy female	22.2	22.1	22.2	22.3	22.3	22.4	22.3	22.4	22.6	22.6	22.5
Disabled male	15.1	15.5	15.4	15.1	14.7	14.7	14.8	14.5	14.6	14.8	15.0
Disabled female	18.3	18.4	18.2	18.2	18.7	18.4	18.0	17.3	17.4	17.6	17.9
Surviving spouse male	18.1	18.2	18.3	18.6	18.2	18.3	18.4	18.4	18.2	17.7	17.9
Surviving spouse female	21.5	21.3	21.1	21.2	21.3	21.4	21.4	21.3	21.3	21.3	21.1

7 Comparison of PSPP mortality rates with other publicly available sources

This section compares life expectancies of non-disabled population at age 65 in 2021 to those of the:

• Canadian pensioners from the Canadian Pensioners' Mortality (CPM) tables (public, private and combined sectors)
• Canadian population (CAN)^{Footnote 6}
• US population (US)^{Footnote 7}

To account for the fact that different actuarial reports and mortality tables were produced at different times, and for purposes of comparability, the PSPP mortality rates are recalculated using data compiled as at January 1 instead of March 31, so that the period life expectancies are on the same time base as those for other populations.Figure 17 shows period life expectancies at age 65 in 2021 of the non-disabled population of the PSPP, the Canadian pensioners, the Canadian population, and the US population. The CPM tables for the public sector produced the highest life expectancies for both genders. Similar to the results found in the Pension Plan for the Public Service of Canada Mortality Study, Actuarial Study No. 14, the period life expectancies of non-disabled members were closer to those from the CPM private mortality tables despite the fact that the PSPP is a public pension plan. Since the Actuarial Study No. 14 publication, the gaps in life expectancies between the PSPP non-disabled population and the Canadian pensioners from the CPM private tables narrowed from 0.4 years (19.8 vs. 19.4) to −0.3 years (20.7 vs. 21.0) for males and widened from −0.2 years (22.2 vs. 22.4) to −0.5 years (22.9 vs. 23.4) for females. The negative gaps indicate that the actual longevity improvements of the non-disabled population are less than those used in the Canadian Institute of Actuaries' CPM-B improvement scale.

Figure 17 - Text version

Figure 17 - Period life expectancies at age 65 in 2021

	Male	Female
PS healthy members	20.7	22.9
CPM private	21	23.4
CPM public	22.1	24
CPM combined	21.7	24
CAN	19.2	21.9
US	17	19.7

8 Impact of COVID‑19

The data used in this study does not contain the causes of deaths therefore any observations made regarding mortality rates in this study does not imply causation of the emergence of COVID‑19. However, COVID-19 was first reported to the World Health Organization China Country Office on December 31, 2019,^{Footnote 8} and Canada had its first confirmed case on January 25, 2020, therefore the mortality rates in plan years 2021 and 2022 coincide with the time period of the emergence of COVID-19.^{Footnote 9} Figure 18 shows the fluctuations in the monthly mortality rates over the period of the study. The monthly mortality rates exhibit annual seasonality with relatively high mortality in the months of December, January, and March. These months coincide with the time of influenza seasons in the northern hemisphere. The trend line with negative slope indicates gains in mortality improvement over time. It can be observed that the mortality rates for winter months during years 2021 and 2022 were slightly higher than the recent past but were not as high as the mortality rates during the severe influenza seasons like those in 2014-2015^{Footnote 10} and 2017-2018.^{Footnote 11} Furthermore, the mortality rates during the summer months for plan years 2021 and 2022 were not as low as what have been in the recent past.

Figure 18 - Text version

Trend line equation: $y=\mathrm{-1}E-08x+0.0022$

Figure 18 - Crude monthly mortality rate for aged 50 and over from plan years 2012 to 2022

Date (yyyy-mm-dd)	Rate
2011-04-01	0.00179
2011-05-01	0.00165
2011-06-01	0.00153
2011-07-01	0.0015
2011-08-01	0.00152
2011-09-01	0.00151
2011-10-01	0.00146
2011-11-01	0.00164
2011-12-01	0.00182
2012-01-01	0.0019
2012-02-01	0.00168
2012-03-01	0.0019
2012-04-01	0.00165
2012-05-01	0.00169
2012-06-01	0.00158
2012-07-01	0.00139
2012-08-01	0.00154
2012-09-01	0.00153
2012-10-01	0.00157
2012-11-01	0.00163
2012-12-01	0.00186
2013-01-01	0.00186
2013-02-01	0.00166
2013-03-01	0.00168
2013-04-01	0.00168
2013-05-01	0.00158
2013-06-01	0.00143
2013-07-01	0.00152
2013-08-01	0.0016
2013-09-01	0.00151
2013-10-01	0.00171
2013-11-01	0.00154
2013-12-01	0.00177
2014-01-01	0.00182
2014-02-01	0.00156
2014-03-01	0.00186
2014-04-01	0.00162
2014-05-01	0.00174
2014-06-01	0.00151
2014-07-01	0.00143
2014-08-01	0.00155
2014-09-01	0.00157
2014-10-01	0.00174
2014-11-01	0.00177
2014-12-01	0.0019
2015-01-01	0.00201
2015-02-01	0.00169
2015-03-01	0.00179
2015-04-01	0.00162
2015-05-01	0.00164
2015-06-01	0.00135
2015-07-01	0.00144
2015-08-01	0.00152
2015-09-01	0.0014
2015-10-01	0.00158
2015-11-01	0.00152
2015-12-01	0.0016
2016-01-01	0.0016
2016-02-01	0.00158
2016-03-01	0.00177
2016-04-01	0.00164
2016-05-01	0.00156
2016-06-01	0.00151
2016-07-01	0.00143
2016-08-01	0.00154
2016-09-01	0.0015
2016-10-01	0.00166
2016-11-01	0.00155
2016-12-01	0.00178
2017-01-01	0.00196
2017-02-01	0.00173
2017-03-01	0.00182
2017-04-01	0.00162
2017-05-01	0.00159
2017-06-01	0.00148
2017-07-01	0.00145
2017-08-01	0.00136
2017-09-01	0.00155
2017-10-01	0.00159
2017-11-01	0.00158
2017-12-01	0.00186
2018-01-01	0.00212
2018-02-01	0.0017
2018-03-01	0.00187
2018-04-01	0.00172
2018-05-01	0.00151
2018-06-01	0.00154
2018-07-01	0.00139
2018-08-01	0.00134
2018-09-01	0.00143
2018-10-01	0.00176
2018-11-01	0.00157
2018-12-01	0.0016
2019-01-01	0.00179
2019-02-01	0.00142
2019-03-01	0.00176
2019-04-01	0.0015
2019-05-01	0.00162
2019-06-01	0.00146
2019-07-01	0.00134
2019-08-01	0.00163
2019-09-01	0.00148
2019-10-01	0.00167
2019-11-01	0.0016
2019-12-01	0.00175
2020-01-01	0.00174
2020-02-01	0.0016
2020-03-01	0.00173
2020-04-01	0.00174
2020-05-01	0.00173
2020-06-01	0.00141
2020-07-01	0.00145
2020-08-01	0.00136
2020-09-01	0.00151
2020-10-01	0.00151
2020-11-01	0.00171
2020-12-01	0.00176
2021-01-01	0.00174
2021-02-01	0.00145
2021-03-01	0.00154
2021-04-01	0.00155
2021-05-01	0.00146
2021-06-01	0.00149
2021-07-01	0.00153
2021-08-01	0.00143
2021-09-01	0.00167
2021-10-01	0.00151
2021-11-01	0.00161
2021-12-01	0.00173
2022-01-01	0.00187
2022-02-01	0.00159
2022-03-01	0.00158
2022-04-01	0.00141

9 Conclusion

Over the past 12 years, the populations in the PSPP increased and evolved.

• All populations have positive growth rates, except for the disabled male and surviving spouse populations.
• The male-female ratio for non-disabled population reached parity.
• The average age for both genders for all populations increased.
• The percentage of centenarians increased for non-disabled and surviving spouse populations. However, the plan's experience in this regard cannot be reflected in mortality rates, as the data is not credible after age 95.
• Period life expectancy at age 65 for non-disabled members is salary-sensitive.
• Period life expectancy at age 65 for non-disabled population has improved, while it has remained stable or slightly deteriorated for other populations.
• Mortality improvement was lower than anticipated by the Canadian Institute of Actuaries' CPM-B improvement scale.

As demonstrated throughout this report, the three populations have different profiles, therefore it continues to be appropriate for the mortality rates in the 20th Actuarial Report on the PSPP to be separately analyzed. Furthermore, for valuation purposes, it remains appropriate for the mortality rates to be weighted by salary since it was first considered for the actuarial valuation as at 31 March 2017. Last, given a limited amount of data and the complexity of the modeling process for the longevity improvement rates as well as the majority of the members in the PSPP are from the non-disabled population, it also continues to be appropriate for all three populations to have the same assumed longevity improvement rates.

There are countless number of unknowns and unpredictable events that can impact mortality in a material way. Another looming mortality driver that is worth an investigation of its impact is climate change. Climate change may inflict a downside risk on future populations' longevity by stalling the progress of longevity improvement factors or even increasing mortality rates due to the emergence of new diseases and/or loss of lives by way of natural disasters. As the issue of climate change intensifies, its impact on the PSPP mortality can be included in the next study.

Appendix - A Detailed tables by age, year, and sex

Appendix - B 11-year average longevity improvement factors

Appendix - C Complete period life table

Appendix - D Bibliography

• Canada. Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions. Actuarial Report on the Pension Plan for the Public Service of Canada as at 31 March 2020. Office of the Chief Actuary, 2021.
• Canada. Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions. Pension Plan for the Public Service of Canada Mortality Study, Actuarial Study No. 14. Office of the Chief Actuary, 2021.
• Canadian Institute of Actuaries. Final Report: Canadian Pensioners' Mortality. 2014.
• Canadian Institute of Actuaries. Educational Note - Second Revision: Selection of Mortality Assumptions for Pension Plan Actuarial Valuations. 2014.
• Retraite Québec. Actuarial Valuation of the Québec Pension Plan as at 31 December 2021.
• USA. Office of the Chief Actuary. Period Life Tables.

Appendix - E Acknowledgements

The following people assisted in the preparation of this study:

• Linda Benjauthrit, ACIA, ASA
• Yann Bernard, FCIA, FSA
• Julie Fortier
• Kelly Moore
• Marie-Chloée Pontbriand-Paré, FICA, FSA
• Natalija Rajic