Life Insurance Capital Adequacy Test (2025) – Chapter 7 Segregated Fund Guarantee Risk

Information
Publication type
Draft guideline
Category
Capital Adequacy Requirements
Date
Sector
Life Insurance and Fraternal Companies
Issue date
August 22, 2024
No
A
Table of contents

Consultation status: Open

Please provide your feedback to LICAT-TSAV@osfi-bsif.gc.ca by October 22, 2024.

To review the version of this chapter currently in effect, please visit Life Insurance Capital Adequacy Test (2024) – Chapter 7 Segregated Fund Guarantee Risk.

This component is for the risk associated with investment or performance-related guarantees on segregated funds or other similar products. The component comprises two parts:

  1. An adjustment to retained earnings to account for the Restated Liabilities, as determined under section 7.1, and
  2. Capital requirements for credit, market, insurance and operational risks that are included as part of the total requirements for these risks in the calculation of the Base Solvency Buffer. The capital requirements for credit, market and insurance risks are determined by applying various shocks to Restated Liabilities.

7.1. Restated Liabilities

Restated Liabilities are determined separately for each legal entity in each geographic region, as defined under section 1.1.5. Restated Liabilities are calculated by modifying the discount rate and expected return assumptions that an insurer uses to calculate Best Estimate Liabilities (i.e. liabilities excluding risk adjustment and CSM), as specified below. Once Restated Liabilities have been determined, the difference between Restated Liabilities and the Best Estimate Liabilities, after any applicable transition measures in section 7.5, is deducted from Adjusted Retained Earnings (q.v. section 2.1.1) or included in Assets Required (q.v. section 12.2.5).

The discount rates for guarantee payouts and the expected return rates for all asset classes under the risk neutral probability measure should be swap rates. These discount rates should not contain any spread above swap rates either on or after the valuation date. In addition, if other components of the model are calibrated using an interest rate assumption, then the interest rates used for calibration should be the same as the swap rates used for discounting, without any spread above these rates either on or after the valuation date.

7.2. Capital Requirements

Segregated fund guarantees are subject to capital requirements for credit, market, insurance and operational risks. In all cases where a capital requirement is determined by applying a shock to an assumption used to value liabilities, the requirement is equal to the difference between Restated Liabilities (rather than the liabilities reported in the financial statements) recalculated under the shock, and Restated Liabilities calculated before the shock.

7.2.1. Credit risk

The requirement for credit risk is equal to the amount by which Restated Liabilities increases when the starting values of bonds and other fixed-income assets within all segregated funds are reduced by the factor amounts specified for the assets in Chapter 3. The credit risk requirement is calculated net of all reinsurance.

The factor is a weighted average of credit risk factors for the bonds and other fixed-income assets that the fund is permitted to invest in. The weights and factors are calculated assuming that the fund first invests in the asset class attracting the highest capital requirement, to the maximum extent permitted in its prospectus or Annual Information Form (where more current). It is then assumed that the fund continues allocating investments to asset classes in declining order of capital charge, to the maximum extent permitted, until a total allocation of 100% is reached. The factor for the fund is then the sum of the products of the weights and risk factors for the assumed investment allocation.

In the absence of specific limits to asset classes, the starting values of the bonds or other fixed income assets is subject to the highest risk charge applicable to any bond and other fixed-income asset that the fund holds or is permitted to invest in.

If an insurer cannot determine the asset classes in which the fund is permitted to invest in, it should reduce the starting value of the bonds or other fixed income assets by the factor for a BBB-rated bond having a maturity of 10 years.

The total credit risk requirements for segregated fund guarantees calculated in this section is modified by the applicable transition measures found in section 7.5.

7.2.2. Market risk

Segregated fund guarantees are subject to requirements for equity risk.

The gross requirement for equity risk is equal to the amount by which Restated Liabilities increase when the value of equities, preferred shares and mutual funds within all segregated funds are shocked downwards and, simultaneously, implied equity volatilities are shocked by specified amounts. The equity risk requirement is calculated net of all reinsurance.

Equity risk hedges may be applied to reduce the requirement as described in section 7.3.

The downward shocks applied to the starting values of equities, preferred shares and mutual funds on the valuation date are the factor amounts for these assets specified in sections 5.2 and 5.4.

Volatility shocks are applied by adding the percentage amounts specified in Appendix 7-A to the annualized current forward equity volatilities used to determine Restated Liabilities. The table in Appendix 7-A shows the annualized current forward equity volatilities in the column down the left and the month at which these shocks apply (i.e., month 1, 2, …, 360, 1200) across the top.

Linear interpolation should be used to derive the additional volatility shocks between the values specified in Appendix 7-A.

Examples: Calculation of Equity Implied Volatility Shocks

The following illustrates the calculation of the equity implied volatility shocks. The shocks are determined according to the table above using linear interpolation where appropriate.

The tables below illustrate shocked volatility using hypothetical annualized current forward equity volatility at each month.

Annualized Current Forward Volatility (A) Months Shock (B) Shocked Volatility (A+B)
5.0 1 +36.0 41.0
5.0 115 (5 × 18.2 + 31 × 30.9) ÷ 36 = +29.1 34.1
5.0 550 +20.0 25.0
Annualized Current Forward Volatility (A) Months Shock (B) Shocked Volatility (A+B)
18.7 1 0.3 × 23.0 + 0.7 × 22.0 =  +22.3 41.0
18.7 115 (5 × (0.3 × 9.3 + 0.7 × 9.0) + 31 × (0.3 × 18.1 + 0.7 × 17.1)) ÷ 36 =  +16.2 34.9
18.7 550 +6.3 25.0
Annualized Current Forward Volatility (A) Months Shock (B) Shocked Volatility (A+B)
54.0 1 −13.0 41.0
54.0 115 (5 × −4.7 + 31 × −3.4) ÷ 36 = −3.6 51.4
54.0 550 −29.0 25.0

For companies who prefer to apply the volatility shocks on a spot basis instead of a forward basis, the percentage amounts specified in Appendix 7-B must be added to the annualized current spot equity volatilities used to determine Restated Liabilities. The table in Appendix 7-B shows the annualized current spot equity volatilities in the column down the left and the term at which these shocks apply (i.e., term 1, 2, …, 360, 1200) across the top. As with the forward basis, linear interpolation should be used to derive the additional volatility shocks between the values specified in Appendix 7-B.

The total market risk requirements for segregated fund guarantees calculated in this section is modified by the applicable transition measures found in section 7.5.

7.2.3. Insurance risk

Segregated fund guarantees are subject to requirements for mortality risk, longevity risk, lapse risk and expense risk. Restated Liabilities and shocked restated liabilities are projected net of registered reinsurance.

7.2.3.1. Mortality and longevity risk

Segregated fund guarantee mortality and longevity risk requirements are defined in sections 6.2 and 6.3. Mortality risk should be assumed to be a diversifiable risk within all calculations so that, even for a single policy, all mortality assumptions are reflected as proportional decrements and survivorship at each time step. All segregated fund guarantee insurance risk components in this section are calculated as the difference between the present value of shocked cash flows and Restated Liabilities. The amount that should be used for the present value of shocked cash flows is Restated Liabilities with best estimate mortality or longevity assumptions shocked, and with all other assumptions used in the determination of Restated Liabilities unchanged. In particular, the discount rate curve used in the determination of shocked cash flows is the valuation swap curve rather than the rates specified in section 6.1.

Segregated fund guarantees are treated as basic death products. For each set of segregated fund guarantee products, the volatility risk required capital component is given by:

RC = 2.7 × q ( 1 q ) ( max ( 0 , b V ) ) 2

where q is the policy's Best Estimate Assumption for mortality, b is the policy guarantee benefit payable immediately in the event of death, V is the Restated Liability for the policy, and the summation is taken over all policies in the set.

The mortality and longevity risk requirements for segregated fund guarantees calculated in this section are modified by the applicable transition measures found in section 7.5.

7.2.3.2. Lapse risk

The requirement for lapse risk for each policy that does not have guaranteed withdrawal benefits, or policy that does but is not in the withdrawal period, is equal to the amount by which Restated Liabilities increases when best estimate lapse rates are shocked up or down by 40% in each valuation set.

If best estimates lapse rates are determined dynamically, the best estimates lapse rates are shocked up or down by 30% in each valuation set. For the purposes of this requirement, dynamic lapse assumptions are those that change automatically with changes in the moneyness of the policy, or because of other factors.

The requirement for lapse risk for each policy with guaranteed withdrawal benefits that is in the withdrawal period is equal to the amount by which Restated Liabilities increases when lapse rates during the withdrawal period are changed as follows:

  1. For the first 10 years, lapses are set to the lower of 1% per year, or the best estimate lapse rate used in the determination of Restated Liabilities. However, if the account value falls to zero during the first 10 years, the lapse rate is set to 0% per year in the year this occurs and in all subsequent years.
  2. Lapse rates after 10 years are set to 0% per year.

For each policy with guaranteed withdrawal benefits, there is an additional lapse risk requirement to account for the uncertainty in the withdrawal start date and amount. This requirement is equal to the increase in Restated Liabilities when the withdrawal assumption is changed as follows:

  1. Withdrawals continue for all policies for which withdrawals have commenced.
  2. For Registered Retirement Income Funds for which withdrawals have not commenced, the income start date is set to the valuation date.
  3. For all other policies for which withdrawals have not commenced, the income start date is set to the date from the list below that maximizes the increase in the Restated Liability for the policy:
    1. The best estimate income start date
    2. Three years before the best estimate income start date
    3. Three years after the best estimate income start date
  4. All withdrawals are for the maximum amount that the policyholder can withdraw without incurring penalties.

The lapse risk requirements for segregated fund guarantees calculated in this section are modified by the applicable transition measures found in section 7.5.

7.2.3.3. Expense risk

Segregated fund guarantee expense risk requirements are calculated using section 6.6. The expense risk requirements for segregated fund guarantees calculated in this section are modified by the applicable transition measures found in section 7.5.

7.2.4. Operational risk

Segregated fund guarantees are subject to operational risk requirements as specified in section 8.2.

7.3. Recognition of Equity Hedges

The requirements in section 7.2.2 may be reduced by equity hedges. Equity hedges that receive recognition under this section cannot be applied towards other equity risks.

To qualify for capital reduction for equity hedges, an insurer's hedging program must be clearly defined and documented. The documentation should be available to OSFI on request and include at a minimum:

  • Chief Risk Officer (CRO) or equivalent ongoing and no less frequently than annual review and approval of hedging program;
  • Hedging Objectives;
  • List and description of the blocks of businesses and types of guarantees that are covered by the hedging strategy, and a list of the financial instruments that can be used to hedge segregated fund guarantees;
  • Description and explanation of the risks being hedged and those not being hedged;
  • Risk measures and risk limits, which must be approved by the insurer's risk management function;
  • Reporting, oversight, and escalation mechanisms (when risk limits are reached);
  • Performance measures and monitoring frequency.

Equity hedges of segregated fund guarantees are subject to the requirements for potential replacement cost as described in Chapter 4.

7.3.1. Static hedging

The requirements in section 7.2.2 may be reduced by the increase in the insurer's segregated fund guarantee equity hedges resulting from the simultaneous downward shocks to the starting value of segregated funds and equity implied volatility shocks in section 7.2.2.

If an asset underlying a hedge does not exactly match the assets in the mapped fund corresponding to a guaranteed segregated fund, the price shock applied to the asset underlying the hedge should be reduced using the method specified in section 5.2.4.2 based on the correlation of weekly returns between the underlying asset and the mapped fund.

7.3.2. Dynamic hedging

Instead of applying the downward shock to the starting value of equity hedges in 7.3.1, an insurer with a dynamic hedging program may calculate a separate reduction to the equity risk requirements using a prescribed set of equity price scenarios. The separate reduction is limited to blocks of segregated fund guarantees that are dynamically hedged.

Specific conditions must be met, and confirmation from OSFI is required before an insurer can reduce the requirements in section 7.2.2 for dynamic hedging.

7.3.2.1. Qualitative conditions

In addition to the documents required under 7.3, an insurer's dynamic hedging program must, include the following:

  • Description of the risks associated with the dynamic hedging strategy (e.g. liquidity risk, counterparty risk, model risk), as well as a risk management strategy;
  • Independent valuation of the hedging asset portfolios;
  • A process flow chart that clearly shows the inputs collected and generated, as well as teams involved in the operation of the hedging program (including ALM, valuation and trading functions);
  • Description of the roles and responsibility for all personnel and processes involved, including operation, risk management and risk oversight, as well as sign offs from each of the key functions described;
  • Roles and responsibilities of the three lines for the dynamic hedging program;
  • Description of the process followed to approve the hedging strategy, including the frequency of strategy reviews; and
  • Description of the process to review the dynamic hedging program for new products and/or to expand the program.

Insurers should include the items listed above in LICAT Memorandum.

7.3.2.2. Quantitative conditions

An insurer's dynamic hedging program must have been in place for at least three years before it may reduce the requirements in section 7.2.2.

In addition, in the past 12 quarters from the calculation date, for quarters that have changes in liabilities that are greater than 10% of the liabilities for the hedged cash flows as of the previous quarter end, the program's quarterly hedge effectiveness must be within [70%, 130%] in each geographic region where the program is employed. Quarterly hedge effectiveness is defined as:

Quarterly Hedge Effectiveness = Quarterly change in the value of the hedging portfolio Quarterly change in the value of the hedged liabilities

where:

The value of the hedged liabilities is the liability calculated for segregated fund guarantees using only the hedged cash flows (including both hedged outflows and hedged inflows). Changes in the value of the hedged liabilities include all changes due to equity market movements, irrespective of whether the risks are hedged.

7.3.2.3. Dynamic hedging capital credit

The amount by which the equity risk requirements can be reduced to account for the dynamic hedging program is equal to the difference between equity risk requirements reflecting dynamic hedging and the downward price shock component of section 7.2.2, subject to the limitations in 7.3.3.

Equity risk requirements reflecting dynamic hedging are calculated using the prescribed equity price scenarios set out in Appendix 7-C, where each scenario represents a series of 52 weekly (or 12 monthly) equity prices. For each scenario, the difference between changes in the value of Restated Liabilities for the hedged cash flowsFootnote 1 and changes in the value of hedging assets (including cash flow incurred) is calculated after each time step and discounted to time zero using the swap curve. Equity risk requirements reflecting dynamic hedging is the average of the positive present values across the prescribed scenarios.

The dynamic hedging program's rebalancing rules and risk tolerance must be appropriately reflected at each time step of the calculation. In addition, the change in the value of hedging assets and the change in the value of Restated Liabilities for the hedged cash flows must only reflect variations in the price of equity, expected claim payments, expected maturities, and the erosion in value due to the passage of time. Values for other variables (e.g. implied volatilities) are the values at time zero and should not change in the projection.

Example: Calculation of Equity Risk Requirements Reflecting Dynamic Hedging

The following illustrates the calculation of the change in value of hedging assets and the change of restated liabilities for the hedged cash flows, from time 0 (opening position) to time 1 (after market movement).

This calculation is repeated at each time step in each of the 20 scenarios. The average of positive present values across the 20 scenarios is then calculated to determine the equity risk requirements reflecting dynamic hedging.

Blank Hedged Liability Value Hedged Liability Sensitivity Hedging Asset Value Hedging Asset Sensitivity
a) Opening position (valuation date) Table Footnote 1 1000 100 0 100
b) Step 1: Update valuation at time 1 1200 n/a 180 n/a
c) Step 2: Update sensitivity at time 1 n/a 110 n/a 105
d) Step 3: Perform rebalancing at time 1 n/a n/a 0 5
e) Position after rebalancingTable Footnote 2 1200 110 180 110
f) Review cash flow incurredTable Footnote 3 5 n/a −2 n/a
g) Change in this period [e) – a) + f)] 205 n/a 178 n/a

h) Hedging (gains)/losses before discounting = 205 − 178 = 27

i) Hedging (gains)/losses discounted to time 0 = 27 × (1+swap rate)(−1÷52) = ~ 27Table Footnote 4

Table 2 Footnotes

Table 2 Footnote 1

Item a) Valuation of the hedged liabilities are conducted using swap rates excluding illiquidity premiums.

Return to table 2 footnote 1 referrer

Table 2 Footnote 2

Item e) Position after rebalancing will be the opening position for next period.

Return to table 2 footnote 2 referrer

Table 2 Footnote 3

Item f) For liability cash flows, positive indicates payout to policyholders. For asset cash flows, positive indicates gain and negative indicates losses. Asset cash flows should include costs of entering into positions, such as transaction costs, and realized gains/losses from exiting positions.

Return to table 2 footnote 3 referrer

Table 2 Footnote 4

Item i) Hedging (gains)/losses in each period should be discounted to time zero using swap rate curve.

Return to table 2 footnote 4 referrer

7.3.3. Limit on recognition of hedges

Where an insurer is claiming dynamic hedging credit on a block of segregated fund guarantees, the amount by which the amounts calculated in sections 7.3.1 and 7.3.2 can reduce the requirements in section 7.2.2 is limited to 80% of the requirements in section 7.2.2 for the hedged cash flows only.

7.4. Simplified Option

Insurers may calculate segregated fund guarantee risk capital requirements per this section if the conditions in section 7.4.1 are met. The capital requirements calculated in this section are to be used in place of those included in sections 7.2 and 7.3. Total guaranteed value used for simplified option calculations are net of registered reinsurance.

7.4.1. Conditions

Insurers with a total guaranteed value of $100M or less may choose to calculate segregated fund guarantee capital requirements using the approach in section 7.4.2 instead of the approach specified in sections 7.2 and 7.3.

An insurer will be required to notify OSFI in writing when first electing to use the Simplified Option. The election must be made within the first 3 months of the annual accounting period beginning on or after January 1, 2025. For qualifying insurers, alternating between the methodology described in sections 7.2 and section 7.4 is only permitted every two years. After two years, if the total guaranteed value is greater than $100M, the insurer will be expected to use sections 7.2 and 7.3 to calculate its capital requirements. In addition, an insurer will be required to notify OSFI in writing when changing approaches.

Notwithstanding the conditions above, OSFI has the discretion to require an insurer to use sections 7.2. and 7.3. Factors OSFI may consider in using this discretion include, but are not necessarily limited to, high rate of portfolio growth, changes to the product portfolio, innovative or higher risk products.

7.4.2. Capital requirements

Capital requirements are calculated by applying a factor to the total guaranteed value by type of guarantee.

Factor applied to the guaranteed value, net of registered reinsurance
Type of guarantee Factor
GMWB 15%
GMMB 10%
GMDB 10%

If guarantees cannot be separated (e.g. two guarantees are sold together), the higher factor should be applied to the combined guaranteed value.

Insurers should contact OSFI to determine capital requirements for guarantee types for which factors have not been provided in this section.

7.5. Transition Measures

The following transition measures are applicable:

  • A scalar of 1.1 should be applied to the items listed in section 7.5.1 and 7.5.2. This scalar will be reassessed by OSFI as policy development occurs over the three-year period following the application of this guideline.
  • At the discretion of the insurer and as a one-time election at transition, items listed in section 7.5.1, 7.5.2 and 7.5.3 can be smoothed by averaging them with the previous 3 quarters in which the current guideline applies. This smoothing applies either to all items or to none, and its application and will be reassessed after 3 years following the application of this guideline. The election must be made within the first 6 months of the annual accounting period beginning on or after January 1, 2025, and cannot be changed thereafter.

7.5.1. Capital requirements

Transition measures apply to the following capital requirements:

  • Credit risk (q.v. section 7.2.1)
  • Market risk after hedging credits (q.v. section 7.2.2 and 7.3)
  • All underlying components of the mortality and longevity risks (q.v. section 7.2.3.1)
  • Lapse risk (q.v. section 7.2.3.2)
  • Expense risk (q.v. section 7.2.3.3)

The above capital requirements, after applicable transition measures, are included in the calculation of the Base Solvency Buffer (q.v. Chapter 11). Specifically,

  • Credit and market risk requirements (after hedging credit), after applicable transition measures, are included in the term A in section 11.2.2.
  • Mortality risk components and total mortality risk requirements, after applicable transition measures, are included in the calculation of the within-risk diversification credit in section 11.1 and in the calculation of IRi in section 11.2.1.
  • Longevity risk requirements, after applicable transition measures, are included in the calculation of IRi in section 11.2.1.
  • Lapse risk requirements, after applicable transition measures, are included in the calculation of IRi in section 11.2.1.
  • Expense risk requirements, after applicable transition measures, are included in the calculation of IRi in section 11.2.1.
  • The sum of these risk requirements, after application of transition measures, are included in the calculation of the general required capital for operational risk (q.v. Section 8.2.3), which is included in the calculation of OR in section 11.3.

The applicable transition measures also apply when calculating the marginal credit, market and insurance risk requirements for the amounts recoverable on surrender (q.v. section 2.1.2.9)

7.5.2. Simplified Option

Transition measures apply to the capital requirements in section 7.4.2. The capital requirements, after applicable transition measures, should be included in component SFGSO in the calculation of the Base Solvency Buffer in section 11.3.

7.5.3. Impact of Liability Restatement

The smoothing measure applies to the difference between Restated Liabilities and the Best Estimate Liabilities that is deducted from Adjusted Retained Earnings (q.v. section 2.1.1), or included in Assets Required (q.v. section 12.2.5).

7.6. Unregistered Reinsurance

Refer to section 10.2 for the adjustments to Available Capital to account for ceded segregated fund guarantee liabilities arising from unregistered reinsurance.

Eligible Deposits held for unregistered reinsurance per section 10.3, for a period not less than the fund guarantee term remaining, may be recognized subject to the limit in section 6.8.1. For Canadian business, the deposits must be held in Canada, and OSFI must have given the company permission to recognize the deposits.

Appendix 7-A Equity Implied Volatility Shocks on a Forward Basis

Equity implied volatility shocks on a forward basis
Annualized Current Forward Equity Volatility
1 month 6 months 12 months 24 months 36 months 48 months 60 months 84 months 120 months 144 months 180 months 360 months 1200 months
1 40.0 19.5 25.2 20.6 22.4 22.6 22.3 22.0 34.9 43.1 26.5 24.0 24.0
2 39.0 18.6 24.5 19.5 21.4 22.1 21.2 20.8 33.9 42.1 25.5 23.0 23.0
3 38.0 17.7 23.3 18.9 20.4 21.2 20.3 19.9 32.8 40.9 25.6 22.0 22.0
4 37.0 16.9 22.9 17.7 20.0 20.1 19.0 19.7 31.7 39.6 24.2 21.0 21.0
5 36.0 16.1 21.9 17.1 18.9 19.1 18.7 18.2 30.9 38.7 23.3 20.0 20.0
6 35.0 15.5 21.0 16.4 18.3 18.6 17.3 17.7 29.8 37.5 22.7 19.0 19.0
7 34.0 14.7 20.4 15.5 17.5 17.9 17.1 16.7 28.7 36.4 22.1 18.0 18.0
8 33.0 14.0 19.7 14.9 16.7 17.3 16.3 15.8 28.0 35.1 20.8 17.0 17.0
9 32.0 13.4 18.9 14.4 15.9 16.6 15.6 15.2 26.9 33.5 20.5 16.0 16.0
10 31.0 12.8 18.3 13.8 15.4 15.5 15.0 14.5 26.0 32.4 20.0 15.0 15.0
11 30.0 12.3 17.7 13.0 14.9 15.2 14.3 13.9 24.9 31.3 18.7 14.0 14.0
12 29.0 11.7 17.0 12.4 14.5 14.5 13.7 12.9 24.1 30.1 18.2 13.0 13.0
13 28.0 11.3 16.2 12.1 13.8 14.0 13.0 12.4 23.0 28.7 18.0 12.0 12.0
14 27.0 10.7 15.6 11.6 13.2 13.4 12.4 11.9 21.9 27.2 17.8 11.0 11.0
15 26.0 10.3 15.1 11.0 12.6 12.8 11.9 11.6 20.8 26.1 16.5 10.0 10.0
16 25.0 9.8 14.5 10.6 12.3 12.2 11.4 10.8 20.1 24.9 15.4 9.0 9.0
17 24.0 9.4 14.0 10.3 11.5 11.6 11.3 9.9 19.1 23.1 16.3 8.0 8.0
18 23.0 9.0 13.4 9.6 11.1 11.4 10.7 9.3 18.1 22.0 15.1 7.0 7.0
19 22.0 8.6 12.9 9.3 10.5 10.9 10.2 9.0 17.1 20.5 14.9 6.0 6.0
20 21.0 8.2 12.3 8.7 10.3 10.3 9.7 8.5 16.0 18.9 14.0 5.0 5.0
21 20.0 7.8 11.8 8.4 9.7 9.8 9.2 8.0 15.0 17.9 13.6 4.0 4.0
22 19.0 7.3 11.3 8.0 9.2 9.3 8.7 7.5 14.3 16.8 12.5 3.0 3.0
23 18.0 7.1 10.5 7.9 8.9 8.9 8.2 7.0 13.3 14.8 12.7 2.0 2.0
24 17.0 6.7 10.2 7.3 8.4 8.4 7.7 6.5 12.5 13.6 11.7 1.0 1.0
25 16.0 6.2 9.7 6.9 7.8 8.1 7.7 5.9 11.3 12.1 11.5 0.0 0.0
26 15.0 6.0 9.2 6.5 7.7 7.5 6.8 5.6 10.5 11.0 10.4 −1.0 −1.0
27 14.0 5.5 8.7 6.2 7.1 7.2 6.9 5.1 9.5 9.5 10.4 −2.0 −2.0
28 13.0 5.3 8.2 5.8 6.9 6.7 6.4 4.4 8.5 8.3 10.2 −3.0 −3.0
29 12.0 5.0 7.4 5.5 6.5 6.4 5.4 4.7 7.3 8.3 10.1 −4.0 −4.0
30 11.0 4.6 7.2 5.2 5.9 5.9 5.4 3.8 6.6 7.5 9.4 −5.0 −5.0
31 10.0 4.3 6.7 4.8 5.7 5.4 5.1 3.3 5.6 7.1 9.0 −6.0 −6.0
32 9.0 4.0 5.9 4.8 5.1 5.1 4.6 3.0 4.8 6.5 8.3 −7.0 −7.0
33 8.0 3.5 5.7 4.1 4.8 4.9 4.1 2.7 4.3 5.8 7.3 −8.0 −8.0
34 7.0 3.3 5.2 3.7 4.6 4.4 3.7 2.4 4.0 5.6 7.2 −9.0 −9.0
35 6.0 3.0 4.7 3.5 4.2 4.1 3.3 2.1 3.8 5.5 7.2 −10.0 −10.0
36 5.0 2.7 4.2 3.3 3.7 3.7 2.9 1.8 3.3 4.9 6.4 −11.0 −11.0
37 4.0 2.4 3.7 2.9 3.5 3.2 2.5 1.5 2.8 4.1 5.5 −12.0 −12.0
38 3.0 2.1 3.2 2.6 3.1 2.8 2.1 1.2 2.6 4.0 5.4 −13.0 −13.0
39 2.0 1.8 2.7 2.2 2.8 2.6 2.2 0.3 1.7 3.1 4.5 −14.0 −14.0
40 1.0 1.5 2.2 2.0 2.4 2.2 1.8 0.0 1.5 2.9 4.4 −15.0 −15.0
41 0.0 1.2 1.8 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.4 −0.4 1.1 2.7 4.2 −16.0 −16.0
42 −1.0 0.8 1.3 1.3 1.7 1.4 1.0 −0.7 0.9 2.5 4.1 −17.0 −17.0
43 −2.0 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 −1.2 0.2 1.7 3.1 −18.0 −18.0
44 −3.0 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.1 −1.2 0.0 1.3 2.5 −19.0 −19.0
45 −4.0 −0.1 −0.1 0.6 0.5 0.6 −0.3 −1.5 −0.2 1.1 2.4 −20.0 −20.0
46 −5.0 −0.4 −0.6 0.4 0.1 0.1 −0.1 −2.4 −0.9 0.7 2.2 −21.0 −21.0
47 −6.0 −0.7 −0.9 −0.2 0.0 −0.4 −0.4 −2.3 −1.1 0.2 1.5 −22.0 −22.0
48 −7.0 −1.0 −1.4 −0.5 −0.3 −0.4 −0.9 −2.9 −1.5 −0.1 1.3 −23.0 −23.0
49 −8.0 −1.2 −2.0 −0.6 −0.8 −0.8 −1.3 −3.3 −2.1 −0.9 0.3 −24.0 −24.0
50 −9.0 −1.6 −2.5 −0.9 −1.2 −1.2 −1.7 −3.1 −1.9 −0.7 0.5 −25.0 −25.0
51 −10.0 −1.9 −3.0 −1.0 −1.4 −1.5 −2.0 −3.8 −2.4 −1.1 0.3 −26.0 −26.0
52 −11.0 −2.2 −3.2 −1.5 −1.8 −1.9 −2.4 −4.0 −2.8 −1.6 −0.4 −27.0 −27.0
53 −12.0 −2.5 −3.7 −1.8 −2.3 −2.1 −2.3 −4.5 −3.2 −1.9 −0.7 −28.0 −28.0
54 −13.0 −2.7 −4.4 −1.8 −2.4 −2.6 −3.1 −4.7 −3.4 −2.2 −0.9 −29.0 −29.0
55 −14.0 −3.0 −4.6 −2.3 −2.8 −2.8 −3.0 −5.1 −3.9 −2.7 −1.6 −30.0 −30.0
56 −15.0 −3.4 −5.1 −2.7 −3.0 −3.3 −3.4 −5.5 −4.3 −3.0 −1.8 −31.0 −31.0
57 −16.0 −3.7 −5.6 −2.8 −3.2 −3.7 −3.7 −5.7 −4.6 −3.5 −2.5 −32.0 −32.0
58 −17.0 −3.9 −6.0 −3.2 −3.6 −3.8 −3.6 −6.5 −5.3 −4.0 −2.7 −33.0 −33.0
59 −18.0 −4.2 −6.5 −3.5 −3.9 −4.0 −4.5 −6.2 −5.0 −3.9 −2.7 −34.0 −34.0
60 −18.9 −4.6 −7.0 −3.6 −4.2 −4.6 −4.3 −7.0 −5.8 −4.6 −3.5 −35.0 −35.0
61 −19.9 −4.8 −7.4 −4.0 −4.4 −4.8 −5.2 −6.8 −6.0 −5.2 −4.5 −36.0 −36.0
62 −20.9 −5.1 −7.9 −4.3 −4.9 −5.0 −5.2 −7.5 −6.5 −5.4 −4.4 −37.0 −37.0
63 −21.9 −5.5 −8.3 −4.4 −5.1 −5.3 −5.4 −7.9 −6.8 −5.7 −4.7 −38.0 −38.0
64 −22.9 −5.7 −8.8 −4.7 −5.8 −5.6 −5.9 −8.0 −6.9 −5.8 −4.6 −39.0 −39.0
65 −23.9 −6.0 −9.2 −4.8 −5.9 −6.0 −6.2 −8.3 −7.3 −6.3 −5.3 −40.0 −40.0
66 −24.9 −6.3 −9.5 −5.3 −6.3 −6.4 −6.6 −8.7 −7.9 −7.1 −6.4 −41.0 −41.0
67 −25.9 −6.6 −10.1 −5.5 −6.6 −6.4 −7.0 −8.8 −8.0 −7.2 −6.4 −42.0 −42.0
68 −26.9 −6.9 −10.6 −5.6 −7.0 −6.9 −6.7 −9.4 −8.5 −7.6 −6.6 −43.0 −43.0
69 −27.9 −7.2 −10.9 −6.1 −7.2 −7.1 −7.7 −9.4 −8.5 −7.5 −6.6 −44.0 −44.0
70 −28.9 −7.4 −11.6 −6.2 −7.6 −7.6 −7.4 −9.9 −9.1 −8.2 −7.4 −45.0 −45.0
71 −29.9 −7.8 −11.8 −6.7 −7.8 −7.7 −7.9 −10.5 −9.5 −8.6 −7.6 −46.0 −46.0
72 −30.9 −8.0 −12.5 −6.7 −8.2 −8.2 −7.7 −11.1 −10.1 −9.0 −7.9 −47.0 −47.0
73 −31.9 −8.3 −12.7 −7.2 −8.3 −8.4 −8.5 −10.8 −10.1 −9.4 −8.8 −48.0 −48.0
74 −32.9 −8.5 −13.4 −7.2 −8.7 −8.9 −8.4 −11.6 −10.6 −9.7 −8.7 −49.0 −49.0
75 −33.9 −8.9 −13.9 −7.5 −9.0 −8.9 −8.8 −11.7 −10.7 −9.7 −8.7 −50.0 −50.0

Appendix 7-B Equity Implied Volatility Shocks on a Spot Basis

Equity implied volatility shocks on a spot basis
Annualized Current Spot Equity Volatility
1 month 6 months 12 months 24 months 36 months 48 months 60 months 84 months 120 months 144 months 180 months 360 months 1200 months
1 40.0 29.3 26.3 24.4 23.5 23.3 23.1 23.0 23.7 27.6 28.9 27.1 25.0
2 39.0 28.3 25.4 23.5 22.5 22.4 22.2 22.0 22.7 26.6 27.9 26.1 24.0
3 38.0 27.4 24.4 22.6 21.6 21.5 21.3 21.1 21.8 25.6 27.0 25.4 23.1
4 37.0 26.4 23.6 21.7 20.8 20.7 20.4 20.3 21.0 24.7 26.0 24.3 22.0
5 36.0 25.5 22.7 20.9 20.0 19.8 19.6 19.4 20.1 23.8 25.1 23.4 21.1
6 35.0 24.7 21.9 20.1 19.2 19.1 18.8 18.6 19.3 22.9 24.2 22.6 20.1
7 34.0 23.8 21.1 19.3 18.4 18.3 18.1 17.9 18.5 22.0 23.3 21.7 19.2
8 33.0 22.9 20.3 18.6 17.7 17.6 17.4 17.1 17.8 21.2 22.4 20.7 18.2
9 32.0 22.1 19.5 17.9 17.0 16.9 16.7 16.4 17.1 20.3 21.5 19.9 17.2
10 31.0 21.3 18.8 17.2 16.4 16.2 16.0 15.7 16.4 19.5 20.7 19.2 16.3
11 30.0 20.5 18.1 16.5 15.7 15.6 15.4 15.1 15.7 18.7 19.8 18.1 15.3
12 29.0 19.7 17.4 15.8 15.1 15.0 14.8 14.4 15.0 17.9 19.0 17.4 14.4
13 28.0 19.0 16.7 15.2 14.5 14.4 14.2 13.8 14.4 17.1 18.2 16.7 13.5
14 27.0 18.2 16.0 14.6 13.9 13.8 13.6 13.2 13.8 16.3 17.4 16.0 12.6
15 26.0 17.5 15.4 14.0 13.3 13.2 13.0 12.7 13.2 15.6 16.6 15.0 11.6
16 25.0 16.7 14.7 13.4 12.8 12.7 12.5 12.1 12.6 14.9 15.8 14.1 10.6
17 24.0 16.0 14.1 12.9 12.3 12.1 12.0 11.5 12.1 14.1 15.1 13.7 9.8
18 23.0 15.3 13.5 12.3 11.7 11.6 11.5 11.0 11.5 13.4 14.3 12.7 8.9
19 22.0 14.6 12.9 11.8 11.2 11.1 11.0 10.5 11.0 12.7 13.6 12.1 8.0
20 21.0 13.9 12.3 11.2 10.7 10.6 10.5 10.0 10.5 12.0 12.8 11.2 7.0
21 20.0 13.2 11.7 10.7 10.2 10.1 10.0 9.5 9.9 11.3 12.1 10.5 6.1
22 19.0 12.5 11.1 10.2 9.7 9.6 9.5 9.0 9.4 10.7 11.4 9.7 5.2
23 18.0 11.9 10.5 9.7 9.3 9.2 9.1 8.5 9.0 10.0 10.7 9.1 4.3
24 17.0 11.2 10.0 9.2 8.8 8.7 8.6 8.0 8.5 9.4 10.0 8.3 3.4
25 16.0 10.5 9.4 8.7 8.3 8.2 8.2 7.6 8.0 8.7 9.3 7.6 2.5
26 15.0 9.9 8.9 8.2 7.9 7.8 7.7 7.1 7.5 8.1 8.6 6.8 1.6
27 14.0 9.2 8.3 7.7 7.4 7.3 7.3 6.7 7.1 7.5 8.0 6.2 0.7
28 13.0 8.6 7.8 7.2 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.2 6.6 6.8 7.3 5.6 −0.1
29 12.0 8.0 7.2 6.7 6.5 6.5 6.4 5.8 6.2 6.2 6.7 5.0 −1.0
30 11.0 7.3 6.7 6.3 6.1 6.0 6.0 5.3 5.8 5.6 6.0 4.3 −1.9
31 10.0 6.7 6.2 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.6 4.9 5.3 5.0 5.4 3.6 −2.8
32 9.0 6.1 5.6 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.2 4.5 4.9 4.4 4.7 2.8 −3.7
33 8.0 5.4 5.1 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.1 4.5 3.9 4.1 2.1 −4.6
34 7.0 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 3.7 4.1 3.3 3.5 1.5 −5.4
35 6.0 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.3 3.7 2.7 2.9 1.0 −6.3
36 5.0 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 2.9 3.3 2.1 2.2 0.2 −7.2
37 4.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 2.5 2.9 1.6 1.6 −0.6 −8.1
38 3.0 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.1 2.5 1.0 1.0 −1.2 −8.9
39 2.0 1.8 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.5 1.7 2.1 0.5 0.4 −1.9 −9.8
40 1.0 1.2 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.1 1.3 1.7 −0.1 −0.2 −2.5 −10.7
41 0.0 0.6 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.7 0.9 1.3 −0.6 −0.7 −3.0 −11.5
42 −1.0 0.0 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.3 0.5 0.9 −1.2 −1.3 −3.6 −12.3
43 −2.0 −0.6 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.2 0.5 −1.7 −1.9 −4.4 −13.2
44 −3.0 −1.2 −0.4 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.6 −0.2 0.2 −2.2 −2.5 −5.1 −14.1
45 −4.0 −1.8 −0.9 −0.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 −0.6 −0.2 −2.8 −3.1 −5.6 −15.0
46 −5.0 −2.4 −1.4 −0.7 −0.3 −0.3 −0.1 −1.0 −0.6 −3.3 −3.6 −6.1 −15.8
47 −6.0 −3.0 −1.8 −1.2 −0.7 −0.7 −0.5 −1.3 −0.9 −3.8 −4.2 −6.9 −16.7
48 −7.0 −3.6 −2.3 −1.6 −1.1 −1.0 −0.8 −1.7 −1.3 −4.3 −4.7 −7.4 −17.5
49 −8.0 −4.1 −2.8 −2.0 −1.5 −1.4 −1.2 −2.1 −1.7 −4.8 −5.3 −8.2 −18.4
50 −9.0 −4.7 −3.3 −2.4 −1.9 −1.8 −1.6 −2.4 −2.0 −5.4 −5.9 −8.7 −19.2
51 −10.0 −5.3 −3.8 −2.8 −2.2 −2.1 −1.9 −2.8 −2.4 −5.9 −6.4 −9.2 −20.0
52 −11.0 −5.9 −4.2 −3.2 −2.6 −2.5 −2.3 −3.2 −2.7 −6.4 −7.0 −9.9 −20.9
53 −12.0 −6.5 −4.7 −3.6 −3.0 −2.9 −2.6 −3.5 −3.1 −6.9 −7.5 −10.4 −21.7
54 −13.0 −7.0 −5.2 −4.0 −3.3 −3.2 −3.0 −3.9 −3.5 −7.4 −8.0 −11.0 −22.5
55 −14.0 −7.6 −5.6 −4.4 −3.7 −3.6 −3.3 −4.2 −3.8 −7.9 −8.6 −11.7 −23.4
56 −15.0 −8.2 −6.1 −4.9 −4.1 −4.0 −3.7 −4.6 −4.2 −8.4 −9.1 −12.2 −24.2
57 −16.0 −8.8 −6.6 −5.3 −4.4 −4.3 −4.0 −4.9 −4.5 −8.9 −9.7 −12.9 −25.1
58 −17.0 −9.3 −7.0 −5.7 −4.8 −4.7 −4.3 −5.3 −4.9 −9.4 −10.2 −13.5 −25.9
59 −18.0 −9.9 −7.5 −6.1 −5.2 −5.0 −4.7 −5.6 −5.2 −9.9 −10.7 −14.0 −26.7
60 −18.9 −10.5 −8.0 −6.5 −5.5 −5.4 −5.0 −6.0 −5.5 −10.3 −11.2 −14.6 −27.5
61 −19.9 −11.0 −8.4 −6.9 −5.9 −5.7 −5.4 −6.3 −5.9 −10.8 −11.8 −15.4 −28.4
62 −20.9 −11.6 −8.9 −7.3 −6.3 −6.1 −5.7 −6.7 −6.2 −11.3 −12.3 −15.9 −29.2
63 −21.9 −12.2 −9.4 −7.7 −6.6 −6.4 −6.0 −7.0 −6.6 −11.8 −12.8 −16.4 −30.0
64 −22.9 −12.7 −9.8 −8.0 −7.0 −6.8 −6.4 −7.4 −6.9 −12.3 −13.3 −16.9 −30.8
65 −23.9 −13.3 −10.3 −8.4 −7.3 −7.1 −6.7 −7.7 −7.2 −12.8 −13.9 −17.6 −31.7
66 −24.9 −13.9 −10.7 −8.8 −7.7 −7.5 −7.1 −8.1 −7.6 −13.2 −14.4 −18.3 −32.5
67 −25.9 −14.4 −11.2 −9.2 −8.1 −7.8 −7.4 −8.4 −7.9 −13.7 −14.9 −18.8 −33.3
68 −26.9 −15.0 −11.7 −9.6 −8.4 −8.2 −7.7 −8.7 −8.3 −14.2 −15.4 −19.4 −34.1
69 −27.9 −15.6 −12.1 −10.0 −8.8 −8.5 −8.1 −9.1 −8.6 −14.7 −15.9 −19.8 −34.9
70 −28.9 −16.1 −12.6 −10.4 −9.1 −8.9 −8.4 −9.4 −8.9 −15.1 −16.4 −20.5 −35.8
71 −29.9 −16.7 −13.0 −10.8 −9.5 −9.2 −8.7 −9.8 −9.3 −15.6 −16.9 −21.0 −36.6
72 −30.9 −17.2 −13.5 −11.2 −9.8 −9.6 −9.0 −10.1 −9.7 −16.1 −17.4 −21.6 −37.4
73 −31.9 −17.8 −13.9 −11.6 −10.2 −9.9 −9.4 −10.4 −10.0 −16.5 −17.9 −22.3 −38.2
74 −32.9 −18.3 −14.4 −12.0 −10.5 −10.3 −9.7 −10.8 −10.3 −17.0 −18.4 −22.7 −39.0
75 −33.9 −18.9 −14.9 −12.4 −10.9 −10.6 −10.0 −11.1 −10.6 −17.5 −18.9 −23.2 −39.8

Appendix 7-C Equity Price Scenarios

The following 20 scenarios are equity scenarios with starting value of 100, with weekly steps over one year horizon.

Weekly equity price over one year horizon - Scenarios 1 to 10
Week
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5 Scenario 6 Scenario 7 Scenario 8 Scenario 9 Scenario 10
0 100.0000 100.0000 100.0000 100.0000 100.0000 100.0000 100.0000 100.0000 100.0000 100.0000
1 98.7970 96.8683 99.3986 98.1888 100.9941 99.9861 101.1119 99.1786 101.6006 101.6903
2 97.3052 96.5186 92.8778 96.7853 98.4617 100.7745 98.2086 95.2892 97.7093 105.8101
3 97.1394 97.4251 93.9120 83.8656 97.5216 96.6010 97.8687 91.4380 97.5545 104.4836
4 94.4242 98.2079 93.3285 83.3706 97.9573 95.3301 99.2204 92.9601 96.9777 106.8300
5 95.2207 98.2644 93.2644 82.0308 97.3128 92.7091 98.0153 94.7481 96.6300 107.7423
6 96.3871 99.0042 93.4422 80.5850 97.3352 93.6007 98.8759 90.9911 96.4362 107.8391
7 94.4367 99.8657 92.5945 82.1358 100.5347 90.9215 99.7119 92.2636 96.9410 108.1354
8 93.6641 99.7570 96.1225 83.9099 96.2567 88.3318 98.5094 89.5542 94.8005 106.6145
9 94.2661 97.6913 97.5722 83.0715 94.8379 88.1819 101.6938 93.3412 97.0180 105.0775
10 94.6542 95.3841 96.2288 83.0872 94.1812 85.8473 98.1329 90.1725 96.7847 105.0137
11 92.3250 90.7800 95.0170 85.1775 93.7344 86.0981 98.4102 91.5068 93.8839 102.6084
12 93.3846 92.0924 93.1338 84.3054 94.4081 83.3136 97.7366 88.9052 91.8163 103.5422
13 87.8595 91.0979 92.8686 85.2758 94.7769 84.8910 100.5344 85.3718 90.5434 104.7303
14 84.1003 89.3071 92.6620 84.9788 98.1881 84.5886 101.3079 84.9085 89.2155 102.3614
15 84.9736 84.2546 94.3404 87.1509 100.5429 84.6679 100.6505 83.5131 87.8703 100.9246
16 83.0929 85.2126 94.0242 90.4514 101.0311 84.7077 98.7565 79.9113 88.7022 100.5428
17 81.7866 83.4540 95.9440 91.2319 101.4038 82.8723 98.3360 79.5966 93.1033 99.3282
18 81.9300 80.1818 95.2847 89.9735 101.9361 84.2472 98.7323 78.1680 91.0126 101.8168
19 84.1286 71.1607 90.3047 87.8903 103.0117 83.0786 98.2534 79.4997 90.0720 99.7325
20 83.1505 71.3327 92.5724 86.2805 101.2824 83.1230 93.7856 77.2098 92.0672 101.8461
21 83.5336 68.9453 88.2018 86.0172 101.3358 80.5688 95.6593 75.7004 90.3513 100.9568
22 80.3745 73.8789 86.8768 83.6347 101.2116 79.0808 92.7257 78.5419 89.9788 102.4787
23 84.2986 76.0352 85.9882 85.1649 98.3420 76.7123 95.6206 76.8864 90.2703 100.2106
24 82.5651 76.4562 84.7751 82.8855 99.0425 76.0666 93.1995 77.7610 93.5943 95.1277
25 82.0242 75.2415 84.6915 81.5497 99.6889 77.5243 91.1624 79.5425 91.8534 90.5325
26 79.0982 74.0352 84.2703 81.1228 101.5207 76.3769 91.5660 79.9211 90.3565 87.5902
27 78.0058 72.6670 88.4579 78.3252 100.2622 75.4253 87.6861 76.9846 87.9394 83.1495
28 75.7063 69.4887 85.8238 75.2961 98.6811 74.8627 89.2977 78.7657 86.5958 82.3845
29 72.6348 71.6235 84.6976 74.8067 96.6382 73.7156 92.3732 77.5871 84.9955 83.2128
30 74.5695 67.9354 79.4751 73.8603 99.6738 70.6003 89.9241 77.6140 87.8894 81.2557
31 72.3446 66.3290 76.1851 73.1402 99.7083 67.1256 87.9161 77.8994 70.8098 79.1764
32 66.0096 64.8758 76.8703 71.9930 97.3729 68.6955 85.1563 79.8995 67.8826 73.5773
33 68.6769 63.5391 79.2757 69.5167 81.2608 64.5944 83.5625 84.7773 68.0490 73.1151
34 68.0810 64.2522 78.5518 66.9905 76.4614 66.8182 80.4579 88.2504 68.7796 71.7078
35 69.3944 60.3566 73.8380 68.6280 72.6028 67.4251 80.4076 90.3618 69.0107 73.1234
36 67.3572 59.4799 76.9216 71.8486 73.7626 69.0519 80.2839 85.6648 69.3703 72.0355
37 64.0510 60.0263 75.3546 72.4319 74.1592 67.6117 79.4525 83.7070 68.5771 72.5236
38 61.7929 59.0163 76.6730 77.0349 73.5703 70.3256 80.4392 81.7698 69.7732 72.7998
39 60.7075 62.7510 70.4044 78.0264 71.5350 69.0774 78.7299 79.8591 71.5697 71.9689
40 61.6795 63.2192 69.1831 65.1049 69.5187 70.0646 75.4120 80.6697 67.2250 71.5301
41 63.3452 61.7718 71.6714 63.5372 72.3599 67.4499 75.6395 77.3654 69.6734 71.1541
42 62.2393 60.5148 70.0022 62.5647 70.7673 67.4582 72.9706 77.2469 69.1896 70.0658
43 58.6278 59.6287 68.6723 61.4283 67.5830 65.7134 73.9720 80.6451 69.3147 68.4741
44 57.5402 58.6160 64.5141 62.9287 68.7768 66.9007 72.0298 83.3764 70.2676 69.2260
45 57.1015 57.7187 67.0058 60.0613 69.9415 69.3632 67.4212 86.9800 70.4284 67.1138
46 54.5786 59.1123 65.5425 58.5752 71.7350 70.9283 68.7218 80.6092 72.6067 68.8950
47 53.5556 57.8515 62.3272 59.7072 67.8353 71.8586 64.9337 79.0385 74.5590 69.7921
48 51.5959 58.7823 61.8313 59.7655 68.6950 69.8328 61.9028 74.5982 76.2556 67.8927
49 49.2207 56.8663 62.0335 59.7395 66.9320 72.4179 59.3747 68.9382 66.8253 64.7807
50 50.7417 54.0780 55.7309 62.3448 66.4736 70.3473 60.3621 65.8870 66.6616 63.3644
51 49.6020 51.0973 56.8299 62.0824 65.5805 65.9308 61.0291 65.3869 64.2563 65.6700
52 49.7922 54.9144 57.5049 62.8909 64.0464 64.3109 64.4464 64.5551 64.9331 64.9677
Weekly equity price over one year horizon - Scenarios 11 to 20
Week
Scenario 11 Scenario 12 Scenario 13 Scenario 14 Scenario 15 Scenario 16 Scenario 17 Scenario 18 Scenario 19 Scenario 20
0 100.0000 100.0000 100.0000 100.0000 100.0000 100.0000 100.0000 100.0000 100.0000 100.0000
1 99.8193 98.8483 99.5169 100.9373 94.3804 100.8456 100.3089 99.5799 102.4532 99.7172
2 103.1410 96.1216 98.5032 101.8912 91.8959 99.9980 101.2950 104.4412 106.3560 100.6899
3 101.9193 97.3152 98.3516 100.4256 92.6468 99.5759 101.1228 104.0596 105.3275 101.5106
4 102.9123 98.1760 99.3762 99.4196 96.2791 99.8008 101.1711 102.9396 103.3518 100.4775
5 103.3265 99.3251 96.7524 93.4987 98.1296 100.4458 102.0132 103.3459 101.9924 104.5266
6 104.5843 101.9380 100.7400 95.2509 95.1175 102.2959 106.1939 102.9457 101.6663 100.8956
7 100.6492 102.1271 104.2376 94.1282 98.4196 102.5104 108.5723 101.6172 103.8093 100.0915
8 103.0136 99.3691 106.4431 93.7279 100.6460 102.2253 111.5289 103.5657 105.7656 102.1681
9 103.4409 99.2216 107.8320 92.8193 100.7243 101.9858 115.2949 106.7555 110.5291 103.3073
10 106.3919 99.8077 110.9836 92.5373 102.1174 103.2716 112.8770 108.9608 109.4405 103.1487
11 108.8946 101.6865 107.5891 92.0913 103.8361 104.1746 113.8627 112.5068 111.7363 105.8819
12 109.7642 102.3973 110.5009 89.8371 101.9856 107.1210 112.8857 115.9297 115.8739 109.0137
13 111.1767 104.4874 111.0793 91.6727 101.4174 106.6319 114.5202 117.4139 115.1550 111.1470
14 113.4251 104.2640 110.7064 93.6239 101.0945 105.4803 113.3769 117.8885 117.6682 108.2874
15 116.8157 106.2459 114.5416 95.7000 101.0860 111.4305 110.4840 119.3207 118.3440 108.1152
16 114.7580 105.6422 111.8527 97.2413 104.7400 109.5663 112.3781 117.0403 122.1124 110.7738
17 112.8429 112.4222 114.5692 98.7439 105.3586 111.0616 111.6300 116.6243 122.7034 111.6617
18 114.0447 113.7530 115.5136 96.8947 104.3504 113.2845 112.9832 118.4505 121.9625 109.9677
19 113.9784 115.4403 119.4157 99.0011 102.5073 115.9892 112.2414 120.8933 121.2475 109.0435
20 117.4452 116.7474 120.6233 98.9680 103.5760 116.3123 113.9189 120.3777 126.7323 113.0643
21 116.8934 115.6908 123.3225 98.1570 103.8684 117.7135 116.4326 122.5269 130.0197 112.5751
22 118.6496 116.5949 126.0876 100.5612 104.6650 118.2001 117.9658 124.3952 134.9466 109.1979
23 121.2852 120.3267 124.9120 101.3898 102.1852 118.3388 119.3769 125.2153 134.2975 110.8196
24 125.1780 122.4705 127.7744 102.0190 102.2419 116.2995 118.9222 128.0933 133.6088 110.5085
25 125.1037 126.6231 129.9450 105.2140 101.5622 116.7142 119.9228 128.9108 134.6383 109.5566
26 122.9903 126.4665 129.5008 110.2034 102.8704 118.2586 120.3272 131.8682 131.6350 112.6493
27 120.1448 127.3241 127.6135 110.2456 103.9082 115.3976 120.1478 131.3456 134.1505 116.6650
28 120.2246 131.2065 133.5419 109.2452 104.9730 115.0159 124.0417 130.7958 132.7518 116.7153
29 121.7563 128.6313 137.8692 110.2568 104.1266 115.2281 127.4444 133.1579 137.3261 117.7116
30 121.5626 128.3567 137.5133 113.0814 105.9936 115.7926 126.8965 132.8335 140.1512 123.3293
31 124.1280 133.8420 140.3878 114.2768 110.0224 121.2967 129.2102 136.2383 136.7694 122.1553
32 128.2890 132.7650 139.0344 117.9987 114.6263 121.1933 130.6044 136.5756 141.1490 121.8156
33 126.5361 131.2195 139.6250 120.6027 116.7767 123.7318 134.1999 138.5765 139.0319 123.0198
34 127.7503 133.9258 137.8984 122.7177 123.7018 123.0120 134.7484 137.9556 139.6957 123.6781
35 132.5358 132.8261 139.2146 122.2183 122.3440 122.3781 141.2204 135.6231 138.6225 126.2487
36 131.8574 131.2339 142.1708 123.5596 127.7068 122.8727 143.8436 138.0567 140.3607 126.1084
37 132.2064 130.9742 145.0234 125.1558 130.2374 125.2381 147.1504 139.6670 140.4994 127.1148
38 142.3804 134.3285 149.8364 129.0597 131.9281 124.3225 145.3876 141.9373 140.4789 130.4430
39 145.6629 135.2274 152.0159 134.4235 134.6171 124.4586 144.1239 142.7403 142.2522 135.0435
40 143.3622 141.0192 149.7201 136.6954 135.7746 129.0378 145.3256 143.8363 144.1783 137.5642
41 144.8522 145.4935 146.7639 136.8990 137.9334 130.1878 141.3665 147.4859 142.5332 139.2955
42 148.3101 147.9550 141.6267 137.4609 136.5460 131.8880 143.5012 148.1760 144.3695 137.8910
43 150.8934 151.4552 141.7459 138.2781 133.0097 132.7997 149.4519 147.4183 145.8833 140.7833
44 152.2645 153.2625 140.4311 138.5792 134.5584 136.7119 148.8384 146.5922 145.7487 143.1024
45 157.5373 149.5493 141.1153 138.7607 138.1263 137.8327 151.1411 147.3789 145.8698 142.5222
46 156.5904 153.9292 142.0867 143.5561 139.0675 140.7774 149.8911 148.4625 147.6545 143.9919
47 162.6522 155.1763 150.4743 143.9188 143.2290 147.3402 148.3930 149.7465 147.6082 146.3043
48 166.4754 157.0955 151.3967 140.3653 142.9077 149.1436 147.0964 150.2476 150.2610 147.5793
49 167.5560 152.5763 151.3950 145.2022 143.2130 154.4110 145.1449 147.0667 151.3723 148.0131
50 171.6461 152.6757 155.6684 144.0289 142.4772 157.3700 142.3793 146.2929 152.7595 149.4244
51 173.3281 152.3267 156.5924 136.3546 146.2803 160.2804 142.0003 147.5529 150.8004 148.5162
52 170.1185 151.5859 155.2854 140.1332 148.7098 161.1152 143.1161 146.0948 150.1752 149.7502

The following 20 scenarios are equity scenarios with starting value of 100, with monthly steps over one year horizon.

Monthly equity price over one year horizon - Scenarios 1 to 10
Month
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5 Scenario 6 Scenario 7 Scenario 8 Scenario 9 Scenario 10
0 100.0000 100.0000 100.0000 100.0000 100.0000 100.0000 100.0000 100.0000 100.0000 100.0000
1 95.2207 98.2644 93.2644 82.0308 97.3128 92.7091 98.0153 94.7481 96.6300 107.7423
2 94.2661 97.6913 97.5722 83.0715 94.8379 88.1819 101.6938 93.3412 97.0180 105.0775
3 87.8595 91.0979 92.8686 85.2758 94.7769 84.8910 100.5344 85.3718 90.5434 104.7303
4 81.9300 80.1818 95.2847 89.9735 101.9361 84.2472 98.7323 78.1680 91.0126 101.8168
5 80.3745 73.8789 86.8768 83.6347 101.2116 79.0808 92.7257 78.5419 89.9788 102.4787
6 79.0982 74.0352 84.2703 81.1228 101.5207 76.3769 91.5660 79.9211 90.3565 87.5902
7 72.3446 66.3290 76.1851 73.1402 99.7083 67.1256 87.9161 77.8994 70.8098 79.1764
8 69.3944 60.3566 73.8380 68.6280 72.6028 67.4251 80.4076 90.3618 69.0107 73.1234
9 60.7075 62.7510 70.4044 78.0264 71.5350 69.0774 78.7299 79.8591 71.5697 71.9689
10 57.5402 58.6160 64.5141 62.9287 68.7768 66.9007 72.0298 83.3764 70.2676 69.2260
11 51.5959 58.7823 61.8313 59.7655 68.6950 69.8328 61.9028 74.5982 76.2556 67.8927
12 49.7922 54.9144 57.5049 62.8909 64.0464 64.3109 64.4464 64.5551 64.9331 64.9677
Monthly equity price over one year horizon - Scenarios 11 to 20
Month
Scenario 11 Scenario 12 Scenario 13 Scenario 14 Scenario 15 Scenario 16 Scenario 17 Scenario 18 Scenario 19 Scenario 20
0 100.0000 100.0000 100.0000 100.0000 100.0000 100.0000 100.0000 100.0000 100.0000 100.0000
1 103.3265 99.3251 96.7524 93.4987 98.1296 100.4458 102.0132 103.3459 101.9924 104.5266
2 103.4409 99.2216 107.8320 92.8193 100.7243 101.9858 115.2949 106.7555 110.5291 103.3073
3 111.1767 104.4874 111.0793 91.6727 101.4174 106.6319 114.5202 117.4139 115.1550 111.1470
4 114.0447 113.7530 115.5136 96.8947 104.3504 113.2845 112.9832 118.4505 121.9625 109.9677
5 118.6496 116.5949 126.0876 100.5612 104.6650 118.2001 117.9658 124.3952 134.9466 109.1979
6 122.9903 126.4665 129.5008 110.2034 102.8704 118.2586 120.3272 131.8682 131.6350 112.6493
7 124.1280 133.8420 140.3878 114.2768 110.0224 121.2967 129.2102 136.2383 136.7694 122.1553
8 132.5358 132.8261 139.2146 122.2183 122.3440 122.3781 141.2204 135.6231 138.6225 126.2487
9 145.6629 135.2274 152.0159 134.4235 134.6171 124.4586 144.1239 142.7403 142.2522 135.0435
10 152.2645 153.2625 140.4311 138.5792 134.5584 136.7119 148.8384 146.5922 145.7487 143.1024
11 166.4754 157.0955 151.3967 140.3653 142.9077 149.1436 147.0964 150.2476 150.2610 147.5793
12 170.1185 151.5859 155.2854 140.1332 148.7098 161.1152 143.1161 146.0948 150.1752 149.7502

Footnotes

Footnote 1

Hedged cash flows should include hedged cash outflows and hedged cash inflows (e.g., fees).

Return to footnote 1